Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Global Warming Predictions FAR Too High

The animated graphic above is based on a figure from the most recent draft Assessment Report (AR5), currently under review by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The AR5 draft has been leaked by a reviewer, see  http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/14/the-real-ipcc-ar5-draft-bombshell-plus-a-poll/ 

The graphic is based on Figure 1-4 from the AR5 draft document and it clearly indicates something is and has been seriously wrong with the analysis methodology and computer models utilized by the IPCC researchers. It turns out that ALL FOUR IPCC reports, from 1990 to 2007 have seriously over-stated likely Global Warming, by factors of  TWO to FIVE. When actual observations made over a period of up to 22 years substantially contradict predictions based on a given climate theory, that theory must be modified or discarded completely.

The animation shows the central estimates of Global Warming from 1990 to 2012, from the First Assessment Report (FAR), the Second (SAR), the Third (TAR), and the Fourth (AR4). They are all high by a factor of two to three.

Actual Global Warming, from 1990 to 2012 (indicated by black bars in the base graphic) amounts to between 0.12 to 0.16˚C (indicated by the black arrow in the animation),  yet the central predictions from the four reports (indicated by the colored arrows in the animation) range from 0.3˚C to 0.5˚C.

The colored bands in the base IPCC graphic indicate the range of uncertainty above and below the central predictions claimed by the IPCC when they issued the assessment reports. Please note that the colored bands, wide as they are, do not go low enough to contain the actual observations for Global Temperature reported by the IPCC for 2012.

The colored bands indicating IPCC 2012 predictions extend above the 1990 Global Temperature by as much as 1.04˚C. Even the minimum range of uncertainty bands for 2012 are above 1990 by 0.51˚C, which is nearly five times the actual measured 2012 warming of 0.12 to 0.16˚C.

Thus, the IPCC predictions have errors that are multiples of what they thought they were predicting!

The final AR5 has not yet been issued, and it is uncertain if the above base graphic will make it through the final cut due to its honesty. We shall see.

Ira Glickstein