Thursday, July 4, 2013

IRS and NSA Controversies

In recent months, the Obama administration has been plagued by several serious controversies, chief among them:
  • Charges of political profiling by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) in delaying the approval of tax exemption under § 501 (c)(4) to some "patriotic" organizations, and

  • Large-scale domestic snooping by the National Security Agency (NSA) according to Top Secret documents leaked by Edward Snowden.
You may download my PowerPoint presentation (Philosophy Club, The Villages, FL, 5 July 2013) here: https://sites.google.com/site/bigira/philosophy-related-pps/Philo%20IRS%20NSA%20July%202013.pptx?attredirects=0&d=1

IRS POLITICAL PROFILING CONTROVERSY

According to the May 2013 report by the US Treasury Department Inspector General (IG) for Tax Administration (.pdf available here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/files/2013/05/201310053fr-revised-redacted-1.pdf ), starting in 2010 and continuing through 2012 and two election cycles, "inappropriate criteria were used to identify tax-exempt applications for review".

The IG Report identified some specific inappropriate criteria including "Patriots", "Tea Party", "Issues include government spending, government debt or taxes", "Education of the public by advocacy/lobbying 'to make America a better place to live'", and "Statement in the case file criticize how the country is being run". [exact quotes, including grammatical errors]

The result was that some applications submitted by Liberal groups were approved for § 501 (c)(4) while otherwise identical applications by Conservative groups were forwarded to a team of "specialists" and thus delayed for years.

According to the IG Report:
Organizations that applied for tax-exempt status and had their applications forwarded to the team
of specialists experienced substantial delays. As of December 17, 2012, many organizations had
not received an approval or denial letter for more than two years
after they submitted their

applications. Some cases have been open during two election cycles (2010 and 2012). [my bold]

On 13 May 2013, a day before the IG Report was issued, President Obama stated that the practice was "Outrageous, if true."

The next day, when it was clear that the charges were indeed true, Obama followed up stating:
"The IRS must apply the law in a fair and impartial way, and its employees must act with utmost integrity.
“This report shows that some [IRS] employees failed that test. I’ve directed Secretary Lew to hold those responsible for these failures accountable, … so that such conduct never happens again.
“But regardless of how this conduct was allowed to take place, the bottom line is, it was wrong."
The IG Report included a detailed list of some of the "unnecessary" questions asked of targeted organizations by the "specialists" to delay approval.
1 Requests the names of donors. 2 Requests a list of all issues that are important to the organization and asks that the organization indicate its position regarding such issues. 3 Requests 1) the roles and activities of the audience and participants other than members in the activity and 2) the type of conversations and discussions members and participants had during the activity. 4 Asks whether the officer, director, etc., has run or will run for public office. 5 Requests the political affiliation of the officer, director, speakers, candidates supported, etc., or otherwise refers to the relationship with identified political party–related organizations. 6 Requests information regarding employment, other than for the organization, including hours worked. 7 Requests information regarding activities of another organization – not just the relationship of the other organization to the applicant.
Were "Progressive" Organizations also Targeted?

The Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee published what they said was evidence that "progressive" groups were also targeted (.pdf available here: http://democrats.waysandmeans.house.gov/sites/democrats.waysandmeans.house.gov/files/November%202010%20BOLO%20IRS0000001349-IRS0000001364.pdf).

Indeed, the term "Progressive" does appear on a spreadsheet utilized by the IRS reviewers, however, that line of the spreadsheet applies only to § 501 (c)(3) applications, which are very different from the 501 (c)(4) applications that are the main object of the IRS political profiling controversy.

As the IG Report makes clear, § 501 (c)(3) organizations may NOT "engage in political campaign intervention" while § 501 (c)(4) groups may do so up to 40% of their activities. Another difference is that contributions to § 501 (c)(3) groups ARE tax deductible by the donors while § 501 (c)(4) are NOT tax deductible by the donors.

The House Ways and Means Democrats include one example of a "Tea Party" group that appears on an IRS spreadsheet, but careful observation shows that that line applies to BOTH § 501 (c)(3) and § 501 (c)(4) groups. It should be obvious that tax exemption should not be allowed for donors for any "political campaign intervention", whether Liberal or Conservative.

Thus, there is no evidence that "Progressive" groups were subjected to any profiling related to § 501 (c)(4), while it is clear, even from the IRS spreadsheet example published by the Democrats, that such profiling was inappropriately applied to Conservative groups.

Should ANY "Political" Organizations Enjoy BOTH Tax-Exemption AND Anonymity for their Donors?

In reviewing this controversy, I wondered why the IRS allows MAJOR DONORS to make ANONYMOUS contributions to ANY tax-exempt organization that engages in any form of "political campaign intervention" (be it Liberal or Conservative) .

Well, it turns out that this strange rule dates from the 1958 Supreme Court decision regarding the NAACP vs Alabama (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAACP_v._Alabama) where the Supremes ruled that disclosure of names could render private donors vulnerable to retaliation.

OK, if that is the Law of the Land, so be it, but it should be applied EQUALLY to both Liberal and Conservative groups. Don't you think?

In this case, IRS political profiling, targeting Conservative groups, over two election cycles (2010 and 2012), has almost certainly resulted in a net benefit for Liberal organizations in terms of fund-raising, because some donors will justifiably hesitate to contribute to any organization that has not been approved by the IRS for tax-exempt status.

Has this affected election results at the National level (House, Senate, Presidency), and/or local levels (Governors, State Legislators, etc.)? No one will ever know for sure, but I would think at least some close elections could have gone the other way absent IRS targeting of Conservative "political campaign intervention" groups.

NSA SNOOPING CONTROVERSY

Which brings us to the second part of this (admittedly long) topic posting.

The reason I have linked the IRS and NSA controversies should be painfully obvious:

If any Administration, whether Democrat or Republican, misuses an agency of the government for political profiling purposes, as the Democrats have clearly misused the IRS for two election cycles, how can we trust them not to similarly misuse the awesome snooping powers we now know have been entrusted to the NSA ?

We all know that Edward Snowden, an employee of an NSA contractor, went to Hong Kong (controlled by China) and released several TOP SECRET documents revealing that the NSA has engaged in large-scale domestic snooping. There is no doubt that all TOP SECRET materials contained on the laptop computers and other computer media he had with him have been downloaded by the Chinese and are now in their possession. Snowden subsequently went to Russia, and has been there long enough for the Russians to have downloaded all material he had with him. Also, there is no doubt that both the Chinese and Russians have interrogated Snowden thoroughly and extracted the critical TOP SECRET NSA information that he possessed.  

After the NSA leak was made public by Snowden, President Obama assured the American public:
“… nobody is listening to your telephone calls… 
“… you can't have 100 percent security, and also then have 100 percent privacy and zero inconvenience. We're going to have to make some choices as a society… 
"I don't welcome leaks … There's a reason these programs are classified." [my bold and italic]

Please note that I have bolded the President's word "Nobody". Does that mean no person is listening to our telephone calls (and that no person is reading our emails and other computer communications)?


For example, what if some automatic computer program was listening to our telephone calls (and emails) and searching for some combinations of words that might indicate criminal or terroristic intent? And, only if and when the computer program discovered some suspicious messages and identified the people involved, then the NSA went to the FISA court to get a warrant to have some person listen to phone calls (and emails) to and from the identified persons?

I have also bolded and italicized the word "is". As President Bill Clinton famously observed, "It depends upon what the meaning of the word 'is' is."

Is Obama assuring us that nobody is listening to our phone calls (and emails) right now? What if our phone calls (and emails) are being automatically recorded and stored away by the NSA for future use if and when subsequent analysis reveals that they may relate to suspicious activities and then the NSA gets a FISA warrant to have some person listen to them?

That said, I agree with Obama that we cannot expect "100 percent privacy and zero inconvenience" and maintain reasonable security against criminal and terrorist attacks. Like him, given this difficult choice, I come down on the side of security.

What do we know about NSA snooping?

Started as early as 2006 (under G.W. Bush), continued through present (2008-2013 under Obama).

Key members of Senate and Congress are aware of classified details of NSA programs and exercise oversight. Judicial oversight is exercised by FISA court.

MetaData is being collected on virtually ALL domestic home phone and cellphone calls (at least the Calling number, Called number, Date, Time, Duration, …) Internet data (VoIP, Emails, Chat, Photos, Videos, Files, Stored Data [“cloud”], Logins, SPECIAL REQUESTS, …)

What do I suspect about NSA snooping?

I’ve worked on classified military projects, but never NSA projects or any projects related to surveillance or data mining, so I am free to “speculate” without revealing classified information.

Based on my knowledge of electronics and computers and the Internet and “artificial intelligence” I never type anything into my computer that I would not mind seeing on the front page of tomorrow’s newspaper or TV news!

For many years I have suspected that NSA (not to mention Google :^) has metadata on all Internet activity and phone calls and that they utilize advanced data mining algorithms to associate Phone numbers, Email addresses, Blogs, Social networks, and so on.

It is also likely they use “artificial intelligence” and “key word analysis” computer techniques to “gist” voice phone calls, looking for languages and word combinations that may indicate criminal or terrorist activities as well as semantic analysis to identify individual writing styles. It is also likely they similarly “gist” Emails, Blogs, Photos and other Internet data and use facial recognition, voice prints, and other biometrics to associate multi-modal communications with particular groups of people and individuals.

Bottom Line

I (along with Obama) am appalled that Edward Snowden violated his pledge to protect classified government documents. Internal government processes (and specialized lawyers) exist for reporting abuses. Snowden should have used these before going to China and before revealing these Top Secret activities to the press. (Hong Kong is an “autonomous” region under the control of China.) We should assume China and Russia have all Snowden’s NSA data.

I generally SUPPORT all the known and most of my suspected NSA snooping activities, assuming proper oversight. As I’ve stated in presentations to The Villages Philosophy Club and my Novel and Blogs, advocates of “privacy” are fighting a phony and lost battle. If you have a home and a job and a credit card and a cellphone and a car – in other words if you are a “respectable” citizen – YOU HAVE NO “PRIVACY”. (The only person with real privacy is the guy using your stolen credit card to buy stuff!)

However, the IRS scandal has increased my distrust of the government. I worry that POLITICALLY-motivated NSA employees may abuse Phone and Internet data for partisan purposes (as some IRS employees have done).

Get the PowerPoint Presentation!

If you'd like more technical background on the "six degrees of separation" between (virtually) any two people on Earth and on the issue of privacy in the Internet age, please download the PowerPoint presentation I gave to the Philosophy Club of The Villages, FL.

Please download that PowerPoint here: https://sites.google.com/site/bigira/philosophy-related-pps/Philo%20IRS%20NSA%20July%202013.pptx?attredirects=0&d=1,

Feel free to express your opinions on this issue by posting a Comment to this Blog.


advTHANKSance


Ira Glickstein 




 


Wednesday, March 6, 2013

What is Time? Alan Alda's 2013 "Flame Challenge"


Time - the fourth dimension (2013 Flame Challenge) from Ira Glickstein on Vimeo.

My entry for Alan Alda's 2013 Flame Challenge was submitted last week. It is in the form of a short video  answering the deceptively simple question "What is Time?" (click above to view the video).

Alan Alda is on a mission to help youngsters become interested in science. In conjuction with the Center for Communicating Science at SUNY Stony Brook, he started the Flame Challenge in 2012 with the question "What is Flame?" They received some 800 entries.

I expect they will get even more this year with the question "What is Time?"

ABOUT MY ENTRY

I think I've come up with a unique way of viewing "Time - the fourth dimension".  Due to a strict limit on the length of the video, and the fact that it is aimed at 11-year old students, I have had to greatly simplify the material. This Blog posting includes additional material that will be useful to adult readers and science teachers who wish to know more about my way of viewing Time.

There are three big ideas here:
  1. TIME is NOT a clock (any more than Space is a ruler or Heat is a thermometer), nor is it rotation of the Earth or motion or the order of events, etc.  
  2. TIME is the fourth dimension, plain and simple. It appears different to us because the whole Universe is speeding along the Time axis at the speed of light.  
  3. TIME slows down when we move in Space because nothing can move faster than the speed of light, so any motion in Space must take away from the speed in Time such that the vector sum of the Space and Time velocities exactly equals the speed of light.
WHAT TIME IS NOT

Time is not the tick, tick, tock of a click, click, clock, any more than Space is a ruler or Heat is  a thermometer!
 
Nor is Time the rotation of the Earth on its axis that gives us day and night divided into 24 hours. Nor is it the movement of the tilted Earth in orbit around the Sun that gives us the seasons, nor any other kind of motion. Nor is it the spontaneous decay of certain atoms that give radioactive materials a half-life. Nor is it simply the ordering of events.

WHAT TIME IS

Time, plain and simple, is the fourth dimension, very much like the first three dimensions of Space.
 
The Time dimension appears different to us because you and I and the whole Universe are hurtling along it at very nearly the speed of light as a consequence of the “Big Bang” expansion some 13.7 billion years ago, in which our Universe, along with the dimensions of Space and Time, originated.

Since Time itself originated with the "Big Bang" it may not be meaningful to even ask the question "What happened before the Big Bang?" In any case, we may never know what caused it.
 
The Universe originated as an incredibly energetic and dense point of Energy/Matter that suddenly expanded. During the initial moments of the expansion, it is not clear if there was anything like the sub-atomic and atomic particles of Matter or the radiation of Energy with which we are familiar today. However, when Matter and Energy, as we know it, formed, all particles with mass were expelled along the Time axis, or at very tiny angles with respect to that axis. You and I, along with everyone and everything else, are still moving along or near that dimension at very close to the speed of light, c, which is as fast as anything can go.
 
We do not notice our ultra-rapid travel along the Time dimension as motion because the whole Universe is moving along with us. Therefore, we notice only relative motion between ourselves and other people and between ourselves and other things.
 
For example, people on the equator are happily unaware that they are moving Eastward at about 1,000 miles per hour due to the rotation of the Earth on its axis. Unless you live in one of the polar regions, you are moving Eastward at hundreds of miles per hour. Even if you are on an airplane, travelling  "Westward" from New York to Chicago or Los Angeles at 500 miles per hour, your net velocity is Eastward, due to the rotation of the Earth! We are equally unaware that the whole Earth is speeding along at over 67,000 miles per hour on its orbit around the Sun!
 
WHY TIME CAN BE SLOWED A BIT
 
We live in four-dimensional SpaceTime where everything must move at the speed of light, c, either along the Time axis, along a Space axis, or in a combination of Time and Space at an angle, Θ, to the Time axis. If movement is totally aligned with the Time axis, Θ = 0 and we are said to be “at rest” in Space, and we move along the Time axis at the normal rate (c, about one foot per nanosecond).
 
If we are not "at rest" in Space, Θ > 0, and we move through SpaceTime in a combination of Space and Time such that the vector sum of our Space and Time velocities is exactly c. Since nothing can go faster than c, any movement in Space must slow down our movement in Time. This was recognized over 100 years ago by Lorentz, Minkowski, and Einstein, who use the terms "Dilation of Time" and "Contraction of Space". This is usually expressed in terms of the Lorentz factor:
 \gamma = \frac{1}{\sqrt{1-v^2/c^2}} \,
where c is the velocity of light and v is the velocity of an object in Space.
As an engineer, I found that way of expressing relativistic effects of travel at significant fractions of the speed of light not to be "understandable" from my physical (and perhaps anal) point of view.

After knocking my head against the wall over an inordinate amount of Time, I finally realized that I could get an exactly equivalent Lorentz factor by considering the angle Θ, between the Time axis and the velocity vector of an object through SpaceTime.

[above image modified 12 April 2013]

It turns out that v (the velocity of the object in Space) divided by c is equal to the Sin Θ, and that 1/Ï’, the Lorenz factor, is equal to the Cos Θ.  

WHAT ARE DIMENSIONS?
 
This may sound like a simple question, and the answer is pretty simple, but, just to be sure we are all on the same page (see figure below):
 
0 - A POINT has ZERO dimensions
1 - Drag the point along the FIRST dimension ("x" of Space) and you get a LINE, that has ONE dimension.
2 - Drag the line along the SECOND dimension ("y" of Space) and you get a SQUARE (or rectangle) that has TWO dimensions.
3 - Drag the square along the THIRD dimenson ("z" of Space) and you get a CUBE (or rectangular solid) that has THREE dimensions.
4 - Drag the cube along the FOURTH dimension ("t" of Time) and you get a HYPER-CUBE (or hyper-rectangular solid) that has FOUR dimensions.


 
SUMMARY

When movement is a combination of Time and Space, and the velocity in Space is v, an object is moving through SpaceTime at an angle Θ, such that: v/c = SinΘ, and 1/Ï’ (the Lorentz factor) = Cos Θ.

The figure below shows the situation for seven different values for the angle of travel through SpaceTime, from Θ = 0 to Î˜ = 90 .


Θ = 0⁰  [Sin Θ = 0.0000,  Cos Θ = 1.0000]   AT REST IN SPACE
For an object that is "at rest" in Space, Θ = 0. Even when an object is not moving along the Space axis, it is moving along the Time axis. Since everything in SpaceTime must have a speed of c, an object "at rest" in Space must be moving at speed c in Time. Note that for this condition, v/c = 0 and the Lorentz factor Ï’ = 1. Note also that, for this case Sin Θ is equal to v/c and Cos Θ is equal to 1/Ï’.

Even the fastest rockets and satellites developed so far go only a tiny, tiny fraction of c. Therefore, for all practical purposes, the angle, Θ, is 0 (approximately equal to ZERO degrees). For example, the Earth is travelling around the Sun at a speed of 67,000 miles per hour, faster than any rocket, but that is only 0.001 % of the speed of light. At 67,000 miles per hour, v/c =  0.00001 and  Θ = 0.0000017⁰.

Θ = 15⁰ [Sin Θ = 0.2588, Cos Θ = 0.9659]    MOVING 26% OF c IN SPACE
An object is moving through SpaceTime at an angle of Î˜ = 15. It moves through Space at 26% of c and through Time at 97% of c. Note that for this condition, v/c = 0.2588 and the Lorentz factor Ï’ = 0.9659. Note also that, for this case Sin Θ is equal to v/c and Cos Θ is equal to 1/Ï’.

Θ = 30⁰ [Sin Θ = 0.5000, Cos Θ = 0.8660]   MOVING 50% OF c IN SPACE
An object is moving through SpaceTime at an angle of Θ = 30. It moves through Space at 50% of c and through Time at 87% of c. Note that for this condition, v/c = 0.5000 and the Lorentz factor ϒ = 0.8660. Note also that, for this case Sin Θ is equal to v/c and Cos Θ is equal to 1/ϒ.

Θ = 45⁰ [Sin Θ = 0.7071, Cos Θ = 0.7071] MOVING 71% OF c IN SPACE
An object is moving through SpaceTime at an angle of Θ =45. It moves through Space at 71% of c and through Time at 71% of c. Note that for this condition, v/c = 0.7071 and the Lorentz factor ϒ = 0.7071. Note also that, for this case Sin Θ is equal to v/c and Cos Θ is equal to 1/ϒ.

Θ = 60⁰ [Sin Θ = 0.8660, Cos Θ = 0.5000] MOVING 87% OF c IN SPACE
An object is moving through SpaceTime at an angle of Θ = 60. It moves through Space at 87% of c and through Time at 50% of c. Note that for this condition, v/c = 0.8660 and the Lorentz factor ϒ = 0.5000. Note also that, for this case Sin Θ is equal to v/c and Cos Θ is equal to 1/ϒ.

Θ = 75⁰ [Sin Θ = 0.9659, Cos Θ = 0.2558]   MOVING 97% OF c IN SPACE
An object is moving through SpaceTime at an angle of Θ = 75. It moves through Space at 97% of c and through Time at 26% of c. Note that for this condition, v/c = 0.9659 and the Lorentz factor ϒ = 0.2558. Note also that, for this case Sin Θ is equal to v/c and Cos Θ is equal to 1/ϒ.

Θ = 90⁰ [Sin Θ = 1.0000, Cos Θ = 0.0000]      TIME STANDS STILL 
Light (and other forms of electro-magnetic radiation) move through SpaceTime at an angle of Θ = 90. Light moves through Space at 100% of c and, therefore, since nothing can go faster than cTime stands still. Note that for this condition, v/c = 1.0000 and the Lorentz factor Ï’ = 0.0000. Note also that, for this case Sin Θ is equal to v/c and Cos Θ is equal to 1/Ï’. Anything with mass cannot achieve this speed in Space because it would take an infinite amount of energy to get it up to this speed in Space.
 
[ADDED 11 March 2013] In response to some skepticism about my contention that the whole known Universe is speeding along the Time dimension at nearly the speed of light, I did more research and found support from Brian Greene, Professor of Physics and Mathematics at Columbia U, who has been featured on the PBS Nova series. He writes:

“Special relativity declares a similar law for all motion: the combined speed of any object’s motion through space and its motion through time is always precisely equal to the speed of light” [Excerpt From: Greene, Brian. “The Fabric of the Cosmos.” Vintage Books, 2007. See http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/physics/fabric-of-cosmos.htm for his PBS series.]

I have provided more detail in the first comment below.
Ira Glickstein

Friday, January 18, 2013

Ratchet Effect


From Joel Fox:
  The mechanical device called a "ratchet" lends its name to many phenomena that are not mechanical.  It refers to any situation in which a force in one direction causes a movement in that direction while a compensating force in the opposite direction causes a lesser movement in that direction.  The net effect is a drift in the less resistant direction.  A political example, credited to Margret Thatcher, is "When the Left gets power, she said, they drive everything Left; when the Right gets power, they slow the Leftward drive, perhaps even halt it for a spell; but nothing ever gets moved to the Right."  In the mechanical device, a part called a "pawl" jams the works and provides resistance to motion in one direction, leaving it free to move in the opposite direction.  Our intellectual objective should be to find the pawl in each situation in order to learn what causes the machine to function.

  For a while I lived in France, a country which is about as socialist as you can get.  It was a period during which a conservative government had been voted into power because of a fiscal crisis.  The new government tried to institute reforms; however, a mechanism existed which served as a pawl to prevent the reform from actually occurring.  Students and union members who would lose in the short term, took to the streets to oppose the reforms by blocking traffic and stalling the metro.  After weeks of painful disruption, the government and general public gave up on the reforms.  In other words, the student-union groups acted as a pawl to prevent the society from moving to the right, because of the benefits that accrued to them in a leftist society, despite the democratically expressed will of the people to reform.
  Another example of a ratchet effect is the well known "wage-price spiral."  In a low unemployment situation, wage increments can be demanded which are not merited by increases in productivity.  As a consequence, management must raise prices.  If the situation is widespread, inflation occurs and labor demands higher wages to make up for the loss in buying power.  The cycle starts again.  In our lifetime one has never seen a deflationary wage-price spiral. Hence, there is a ratchet effect.  The pawl which blocks the lowering of wages accompanied by deflation is simply human nature.  Not since the early unionization days has one witnessed the violence of management troops against union strikes and violence.  This causes the lack of symmetry required by a ratchet.   
   Another example of the ratchet effect was the battle between the Soviet Union and the Free World. The Soviets expressed their intention to fight "by all available means, including armed force, for the overthrow of the international bourgeoisie and for the creation of an international Soviet republic as a transition stage to the complete abolition of the State."  While the Soviets maintained a policy of moving their program forward at every opportunity, the West's posture was one of resistance.  Thus we have a classical situation of ratchet effect in which the West could  only lose in the long run unless other powerful factors intervened (which obviously happened).

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Time to fiddle

 [from Joel]  Well, I've had enough.  I think that Plato was right.  There is an inevitable transformation of democracy into tyranny.  Democracy is unstable.  This last presidential election seems to have been a turning point.  Obama has had more strikes against him than any president preceding him (even Nixon), yet victory ensued.  Despite his failings in delivery on campaign promises, abuse of power, incompetence in foreign affairs, slow reaction to emergencies, lack of transparency and open-mike gafs, he pooled his 47% and party loyalists into a victory.  Republicans are unlikely in the future to find more favorable opportunity to retake the White House.  As Plato pointed out, the general population becomes corrupted by the goodies that they receive and are not likely to vote for a candidate that promises hardship and hard work.  I've opted out in the sense that I won't try to convince young people that their future is at risk.  Nor does it even make sense to follow the news.  Qué sera, sera.  I think I'll take up golf and learn to drink good wine while I play my fiddle..

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Global Warming Predictions FAR Too High


The animated graphic above is based on a figure from the most recent draft Assessment Report (AR5), currently under review by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The AR5 draft has been leaked by a reviewer, see  http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/14/the-real-ipcc-ar5-draft-bombshell-plus-a-poll/ 

The graphic is based on Figure 1-4 from the AR5 draft document and it clearly indicates something is and has been seriously wrong with the analysis methodology and computer models utilized by the IPCC researchers. It turns out that ALL FOUR IPCC reports, from 1990 to 2007 have seriously over-stated likely Global Warming, by factors of  TWO to FIVE. When actual observations made over a period of up to 22 years substantially contradict predictions based on a given climate theory, that theory must be modified or discarded completely.

The animation shows the central estimates of Global Warming from 1990 to 2012, from the First Assessment Report (FAR), the Second (SAR), the Third (TAR), and the Fourth (AR4). They are all high by a factor of two to three.

Actual Global Warming, from 1990 to 2012 (indicated by black bars in the base graphic) amounts to between 0.12 to 0.16˚C (indicated by the black arrow in the animation),  yet the central predictions from the four reports (indicated by the colored arrows in the animation) range from 0.3˚C to 0.5˚C.

The colored bands in the base IPCC graphic indicate the range of uncertainty above and below the central predictions claimed by the IPCC when they issued the assessment reports. Please note that the colored bands, wide as they are, do not go low enough to contain the actual observations for Global Temperature reported by the IPCC for 2012.

The colored bands indicating IPCC 2012 predictions extend above the 1990 Global Temperature by as much as 1.04˚C. Even the minimum range of uncertainty bands for 2012 are above 1990 by 0.51˚C, which is nearly five times the actual measured 2012 warming of 0.12 to 0.16˚C.

Thus, the IPCC predictions have errors that are multiples of what they thought they were predicting!

The final AR5 has not yet been issued, and it is uncertain if the above base graphic will make it through the final cut due to its honesty. We shall see.

Ira Glickstein

Monday, November 19, 2012

Political Conservatives Give Thanks

The First Thanksgiving at Plymouth
by Jennie A. Brownscombe. (1914) A mythologized painting showing Plymouth settlers feasting with Plains Indians.

[From Billlifka] The Presidential Election is Over. Now What?

As Thanksgiving Day, 2012 approaches, some followers of the political scene will give fervent thanks while others remain mired in the gloom that follows a defeat of their chosen standard bearer. A majority doesn’t give a damn one way or the other. Arguably, the latter group has it most wrong. The election results will make a huge difference in their lives and the younger they are, the more difference will they experience. One hopes they will remain happily in ignorance to celebrate with those whose candidates won, at least for Thanksgiving.

Downcast political Conservatives are the focus of this essay. May it help them reflect on the blessings that still remain, those which could return and the role citizens could play in causing a return. Some are moving from the United States and others are checking the possibilities of their doing so. Many who are less financially well off and more combative are promoting secession proposals. There are worse reactions but, also, better ones that provide more personal satisfaction and a likelihood of success. First, one might recall the blessings that remain.

60% of state governors are Republican. Typically, they’re not at the rightmost limit of the political spectrum but they’re far removed from the other limit, especially on Constitutional issues and fiscal constraint. (Thank you for this blessing.) A majority of the U.S. House of Representatives is Republican with such members sharing the values of the Republican governors. (Thank you for this blessing.) Like the title of their organization, legislators in the lower House are the most representative of high officials with the roots of their constituents closest to them. That these governors and representatives remain seated suggests a very different “mandate” than that brandished by the president and his cohorts. (Thank you for this blessing.)

The U.S. Constitution remains the fundamental law of the country. (Thank you for this blessing.) It’s being weakened and disregarded, but it’s there. When Obama appoints more Supreme Court justices, major damage will be inflicted, no doubt. That won’t happen without loud protests from a minority in the senate that might draw attention to real issues rather than flaky debating points of the campaign. (If so, we will give thanks for that blessing.) The economy remains weak and it may “go south” again if Obama plays political games in “fiscal cliff” bargaining in December or in a resumption of his regulatory and redistribution extremes in his first term. Consequences of these could reach catastrophic proportions and Americans of all economic levels would suffer immensely, especially those at the lowest levels. On the other hand, that might awaken citizens to the dangers of big government moving the nation away from individual freedom and a market economy. (If so, we will give thanks for that blessing.)

If more citizens remember to whom we are giving thanks there may come a time when religion will be on the rise rather than on a decline. People have a way of turning to God when in trouble. (If that happens, we will give thanks for the blessing.) Republicans have two years to get their act together. There’s not much wrong with their platform, if they stick to high impact matters. They must learn how to talk to Hispanics and young women. They must jettison the few really dumb candidates who somehow get on the ballot. They must set aside petty squabbles. It’ll take great effort but it’s possible. (If it happens, we will give thanks for the blessing.)

billlifka

Saturday, November 3, 2012

Go and Do the Right Thing - VOTE



You are on the Board of Directors of a large enterprise in severe financial trouble. Will you vote to stick with the current executive team or hire a new one?

THE CURRENT EXECUTIVE TEAM

The current team admittedly inherited a tough situation four years ago, but all they have done is spend more than they could ever take in on schemes that are not economically viable. They wasted our money rewarding their cronies with “stimulus” schemes that have not panned out.

The leader of the current team is a charming and engaging speaker who had no leadership or economic experience when he took office, and does not seem to have learned anything in those departments in the past four years. He has sold us a bill of goods of “hope and change” and all he can promise is four more years of the same.

His sidekick has no visible qualifications except having fed at the political table for decades (which explains his “gravitas”). He seems to stick his foot in his mouth whenever he opens it (which explains his clean feet and dirty mouth).
 
THE ALTERNATIVE NEW TEAM

The new team under consideration offers an alternative vision based on solid business principles and demonstrated leadership and achievement.

Sadly, when it comes to campaigning, the leader of the new team  is a bit lacking in the charm department. He sometimes gets into trouble for speaking the plain truth directly and in clear language. However, he is an experienced executive with tremendous business and leadership knowledge and a sterling record of success in turning troubled enterprises around.

His sidekick is a bit of a “policy wonk” with a great deal of legislative experience. He may be the only lawmaker who has actually read and understood most of the bills he supported or opposed. He has detailed knowledge of the budget but also the ability to explain it in plain language we ordinary people can understand.

The new team has an economic plan that is admittedly a bit painful, but it is the only hope (short of Divine Intervention) of getting our enterprise out of the ditch and back on the highway to progress towards economic viability.

It is your choice. Now, go and do the right thing! VOTE!