Saturday, April 18, 2009

Ethical Dilemma 1

[From Joel]
At my local philosophy club we experience a downturn during the summer months. It becomes even harder than usual to find topics and speakers. In exploring possibilities for breaking the barriers that people have in preparing a talk, I devised this possibility and used myself for the guinea pig. I presented several ethical dilemmas that have appeared on the television show "Boston Legal," prefacing them with a short general view of ethics as viewed by Aristotle. The audience response was excellent. Watching a television show and reporting on the ethical dilemma presented doesn't seem like too difficult a chore. Unfortunately, we aren't in the early days of television when E.G. Marshall and "The Defenders" was popular. That would have made it quite simple.

The first dilemma concerns a powerful person (PP) being sued by a not powerful person (NPP). They are both dying of cancer and participating in a drug study. It turns out that the PP has used his influence to assure that he is part of the 50% getting the real drug, while the NPP takes his chances with the rest of the study group. Not actually being a fan of the TV program, I didn't hang around to find out the ultimate result, but it looked like there was going to be an out-of-court monetary settlement. Be that as it may, I asked our club to discuss, not the specific question of whether or not PP and the doctor acted unethically, but rather whether or not the use of placebos as a statistical tool in research studies is moral and ethical. What do you say? with respect -Joel

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Constitutional Amendment

[from JohnS]
Premise:
The evolution of the two party system has distorted the intent of the founders in choosing our elected representatives by preselecting candidates for office without direct input from the electorate thereby making office holders more obligated to their party than the people and by creating career congressional office holders by perpetuating terms of office.

Consider the following:
1. The parties provide our only choices for our President, we the people do not.
2. The parties choose who runs for the Senate and House, again we the people do not.
3. If the people become discontent with their federal congressmen the parties provide alternate candidates.
4. The Electoral College makes the final choice for our President.
5. Party loyalty can assure one of a lifetime career in politics.
6. Today, fund raising is the primary tasks of our congressmen.
7. The two-party system, as exists today, thwarts the intent of our founders.
8. The two-party system, as exists today, isolates the people from the government.

Pressure from the electorate cannot change the system and there is no resolve or incentive within the congress to change their gravy train; the system will continue to reach new lows until it is changed. The only solution is to change our constitution. The following amendment will effectively control the two-party system while retaining the intent of our founders. (My comments appear in blue)

Proposed Amendment to the Constution

Article XXVIII

Bill of Citizens Rights - to provide a more representative government.

Section 1. Term Limitation.
a. Legislative term limit shall apply as follows: Members of the Senate two terms of six years, Members of the House of Representatives four terms of two year. Having served at least one term in office, members of either the Senate or House of Representatives shall not run for reelection until one full additional term has passed.
b. Federal justices, with the exception of Supreme Court Justices, shall be limited to two terms of 5 years. (Term limits will break the stranglehold the two-party system has on our federal government. Those running for legislative seats, knowing their time in office is limited will be less inclined to tow the party line knowing they will be returning to civilian status shortly and will have to live with the consequences of their legislative action. Assuming this amendment passes a review will probably be needed examining the benefits congressmen receive upon leaving office. I include judicial limits in this legislature although I am reluctant to limit terms for Supreme Court Justices; there is already too much politics in their appointment.)

Section 2. Voting Procedure.
Article XII is repealed. The following replaces paragraphs 1 through 3 of Section 1 Article II.
Each State shall appoint, in such manner, as the Legislature thereof may direct, an Elector, but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.
Each State shall receive, a number of Electoral votes, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress. These votes must be assigned to the person receiving the greatest number of votes within the State for President and the person receiving the greatest number of votes within the State for Vice President.
The Elector shall tally the votes within his State, certify the vote and transmit sealed to the Seat of the Government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate. The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates, and the votes shall then be counted. The Person having the greatest number of votes shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole Number of Electoral votes. and if there be more than one who have such majority, and have an equal number of votes, then the House of Representatives shall immediately choose by ballot one of them for President; and if no person have a majority, then from the five highest on the list the said House shall in like manner choose the President. However, in choosing the President, States, the representation from each State having one vote, shall take the votes; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a Member or Members from two thirds of the States, and a majority of all the States shall be necessary to a choice. In every case, after the choice of the President, the Person having the greatest number of electoral votes shall be the Vice President. However, if there should remain two or more who have equal votes, the Senate shall choose from them by Ballot the Vice President. (This eliminates the Electoral College and the electors’ ability to override voter’s choice while retaining a fair vote amongst all states.)
Section 3. Sunset Laws.
All legislation authorized under section 7 of Article I shall
a. Contain a termination clause not to exceed 10 years. The legislation may be re-introduced at any time up to and including the termination date.
b. Be confined to a single purpose. All additions, amendments, modifications or adjustments shall only address the single purpose of the legislation. (The purpose is to stop pork and earmarks outside the specific purpose of the legislation, and omnibus legislation that our legislators do not have the time to read and understand.)

Sunday, April 12, 2009

International Hits on "Piracy on the High Seas"

Capt. Richard Phillips was freed by US Navy Seals after days on the lifeboat with four pirates, three of whom were killed in the rescue. Great work by the Capt. and the Seals. The precedent of not paying ransom for US-flagged ships and personnel has been preserved.

The 10 April 2009 Blog posting Piracy on the High Seas has generated lots of hits, many of them international. South Africa, Pakistan, China, Croatia, Nigeria, India, ... and even Massachusetts! (How many flags did you recognize? Can you match them to the countries listed?)

To see which topics have garnered interest over the past few days, scroll down the right-hand column and look for the Live Traffic Feed, then go to the bottom of that box and click Watch in Real Time. Joel's Is PowerPoint Anti-Intellectual?, and my Where Have All the Sunspots Gone? and Female Mind vs Male Mind and others continue to attract readers.

I find it interesting to look at the wide variety of national and international lurkers we have reading our stuff!

Here are the folks following the Piracy posting, and, in some cases, you can click the hypertext and see the Google search they did to learn of the posting:


Johannesburg, Gauteng arrived from blogsearch.google.com on "The Virtual Philosophy Club: Piracy on the High Seas" by searching for blogsearch.google.com.
Islamabad arrived from blogsearch.google.com on "The Virtual Philosophy Club: Piracy on the High Seas" by searching for blogsearch.google.com.
Chengdu, Sichuan arrived on "The Virtual Philosophy Club: Piracy on the High Seas".
Sandwich, Massachusetts arrived from google.com on "The Virtual Philosophy Club" by searching for moral and phylisphocal problems with paying ransom demands.
New York arrived on "The Virtual Philosophy Club: Piracy on the High Seas".
Rokovci, Vukovarsko-Srijemska arrived from blogsearch.google.com on "The Virtual Philosophy Club: Piracy on the High Seas" by searching for blogsearch.google.com.
San Diego, California arrived from blogsearch.google.com on "The Virtual Philosophy Club: Piracy on the High Seas" by searching for blogsearch.google.com.
Bénin, Edo arrived from blogsearch.google.com on "The Virtual Philosophy Club: Piracy on the High Seas" by searching for blogsearch.google.com.
Gary, Indiana arrived from blogsearch.google.com on "The Virtual Philosophy Club: Piracy on the High Seas" by searching for blogsearch.google.com.
Sandwich, Massachusetts arrived from google.com on "The Virtual Philosophy Club" by searching for moral and phylisphocal problems with paying ransom demands.
Kochi, Kerala arrived from blogsearch.google.com on "The Virtual Philosophy Club: Piracy on the High Seas" by searching for blogsearch.google.com.

I take this as proof the Earth has developed a central nervous system. The stuff you and I write on this Blog is distributed and alerts are sent in real-time to interested people all over the world.

IMHO, this develpment has wide-ranging implications for the development of an international conscousness and unprecedented shared values and civilization over the coming decades!


Ira Glickstein

Friday, April 10, 2009

Is PowerPoint Anti-Intellectual?

[from Joel] Generally speaking, I cringe when a speaker sets up for a PowerPoint presentation. The format used is generally that taught by the military: tell them what you're going to tell them, tell them, tell them what you told them. I find these presentations stultifying, suitable for learning how to disassemble a weapon or how to avoid a venereal disease, but not helpful in a subject requiring thinking. There are too many graphs and bullet points to allow the audience to formulate questions or objections. Unfortunately, scientific presentations have become powerpoint presentations in the past ten years. I happen to run across an interesting article on the web that documents my point of view. Y'all might find it interesting. If Socrates, Plato and Aristotle had had PowerPoint available, there might not have been any western philosophy handed down to us. Do we need to shoot the "messenger"? -Joel

Piracy on the High Seas

Some serious ideas on reducing piracy - but also some philosophy from "The Pirates of Penzance". W.S. Gilbert's words are over a century old, but he distills the essence of the world's reaction to piracy so far.

US-FLAGGED SHIP ALABAMA

It is admirable that the American crew of the Alabama resisted the pirates. I hope and pray the brave and dutiful Capt. Richard Phillips survives the ordeal and that the pirates and their leaders face justice.

The economics for the shipping companies and their insurers and consultants and go-betweens in paying ransom is clear. Why lose a $100,000,000 ship and cargo over a mere $5,000,000 ransom? Why should the consultants, who earn large fees for each successful "rescue" suggest a more forceful solution that might greatly reduce piracy instead of encouraging it?

FORCEFUL RESPONSES TO KIDNAPPING AND RANSOM DEMANDS

Back in 1904, when an American, Ion Perdicaris, was held ransom by a bandit named Mulay Hamid El Raisuli, President Theodore Roosevelt issued a short threat: "We want either Perdicaris alive or Raisuli dead". He did not have to invade Morocco to get action, what he did was to "Speak softly and carry a big stick".

We need to reinstate the great old American slogan: “Millions for defense, not a penny for tribute”.

OVERLY INTELLECTUAL RESPONSES

Although the Capt. and crew of the Alabama appear to be an exception, it seems our political and even military leaders have become overly intellectual - "paralysis by analysis". In Penzance, the main character introduces himself:

I am the very model of a modern Major-General,
I've information vegetable, animal, and mineral, ...

I'm very well acquainted, too, with matters mathematical,
I understand equations, both the simple and quadratical,
About binomial theorem I'm teeming with a lot o' news,
With many cheerful facts about the square of the hypotenuse...

I'm very good at integral and differential calculus;
I know the scientific names of beings animalculous:
In short, in matters vegetable, animal, and mineral,
I am the very model of a modern Major-General.

Yet, he recognizes he has a lot to learn about the military:

... when I know what is meant by 'mamelon' and 'ravelin',
When I can tell at sight a Mauser rifle from a javelin,
When such affairs as sorties and surprises I'm more wary at,
And when I know precisely what is meant by 'commissariat',

When I have learnt what progress has been made in modern gunnery,
When I know more of tactics than a novice in a nunnery -
In short, when I've a smattering of elemental strategy,
You'll say a better Major-General has never sat a gee...

For my military knowledge, though I'm plucky and adventury,
Has only been brought down to the beginning of the century;
But still, in matters vegetable, animal, and mineral,
I am the very model of a modern Major-General....

TOO MUCH UNDERSTANDING OF THE PLIGHT OF THE POOR IN SOMALIA

Our reaction to the pirates shows too much understanding of the plight of their people in Somalia. Indeed they are very poor and have no effecive government. The proceeds of piracy are about all they have to live on. Perhaps our recognition of that explains why the international community has been so timid in reacting to the growing piracy epidemic.

In Penzance, the constabulary is assigned to counter the pirates. They too are overly analytical and caught up in soft-hearted sympathy for victimhood. Like too many leaders, they reject the idea the western democracies could become the "world's policemen". The constabulary in Penzance lament the sad situation of law enforcement when the felon is an ordinary human being like themselves as they prepare to do battle with the pirates:

When a felon's not engaged in his employment,
Or maturing his felonious little plans,
His capacity for innocent enjoyment
Is just as great as any honest man's.

Our feelings we with difficulty smother
When constabulary duty's to be done.
Ah, take one consideration with another,
A policeman's lot is not a happy one.

When the enterprising burglar's not a-burgling
When the cut-throat isn't occupied in crime,
He loves to hear the little brook a-gurgling
And listen to the merry village chime.

When the coster's finished jumping on his mother,
He loves to lie a-basking in the sun.
Ah, take one consideration with another,
A policeman's lot is not a happy one.

CONSULTANTS AND EXPERTS TOO COWARDLY TO SUGGEST FORCE?

It seems the shipping company consultants and experts are like dermatologists. They are better off when the patient gets a bit better but doesn't get cured, and they collect their fees so long as he does not die.

In Penzance, the constabulary prepares to go into a battle they fear:

Though in body and in mind we are timidly inclined,
And anything but blind to the danger that's behind,
Yet, when the danger's near, we manage to appear
As insensible to fear as anybody here...

The constabulary, like so many diplomats in their glory, pose and promise to go "forward on the foe!" but they march around the stage, quivering in fear, and for a long time, they don't go.

SOME SERIOUS IDEAS ON COUNTERING PIRACY

Short-term: In the short-term we need to place armed guards on at least one out of every five US- flagged ships as they enter pirate-infested waters. The 18 US Navy guards who were assigned to the Alabama a day ago as it steamed to its destination in Kenya are an example. Perhaps the armed guards should be active-duty Navy men and women, but, over the longer term, this task would be perfect for private security firms.

All ships traveling in troubled waters should at least get some animated mannikins dressed in Navy uniforms that could be set at the rails of the ship so the pirates won't know which ships actually have armed guards aboard and which do not.

Congress must do their part and pass laws that authorize and require US-flagged ships to have armed guards and to hold the guards (and private companies if this work gets contracted out) personally not responsible for actions taken within the scope of their employment.

Middle-Term: We need laws that prevent payment of ransom to pirates. Any shipping company that pays ransom is endangering all other ships that must travel through that area, in return for a short-term financial advantage. Congress must pass a law forbidding any US-based shipping company from paying ransom. Any company that retrieves a ship by paying ransom should be forced to surrrender that ship and it should be resold to the highest bidder, with the US Taxpayers getting the proceeds.

I do not know if the laws of the sea would allow it, but it would be nice if the US Navy seized a few non-US-flagged ransomed ships and escorted them to neutral ports that would serve as two-year "penalty boxes". That would discourage foreign-based shipping companies from paying ransoms.

We should also consider direct air attacks on the "mother ships" the pirates use to launch their small boats that carry the attacking pirates. If satellite imagery proves a pirate attack was launched from a given mother ship, or that the ransom payment was delivered to that ship, it should be fair game. The crew of the mother ship should be warned to leave in their small boats, the ship should be destroyed, and the pirates should be picked up and put on trial.

Long-Term: With GPS and satellite communications and other modern technology, there is no need for human crews to be on ships while they are on the open seas. The ships could be adapted to travel on any preset course, using remote control via satellite communications.

Crews are certainly required when ships are in port and in crowded waters near ports. They could be removed by helicopter when in the open seas near pirate-infested waters and returned as the ship neared a port area.

If pirates boarded a remote-controlled ship, it would continue on course or be re-directed to facilitate intervention by the US Navy. If the pirates attempted to manually steer the ship to a pirate port, the engines could be disabled via remote control.

Ships could also be equipped with remote-controlled devices that would release tear gas or gas that would incapacitate any pirate crews that boarded them. That could help the US Navy recapture the ships without gunfire.

Ira Glickstein

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Bayesian AI Advisor - Drill Here? Drill Now?

Today, April 7, is the deathday of Rev. Thomas Bayes who was born c. 1702 and passed away April 7, 1761.

His great contribution to mathematics was Bayes Theorem, seen on the t-shirt to the left. Bayes came up with what is called inverse probability at at time when only forward probability was generally known.

In short, if you know the probability of some event B given some other event A, and if you also know the probabilities of A and B, you can figure out the inverse probability of A given B.

Many people think -incorrectly- that forward and inverse probabilities are the same. That is, if a given test detects, say, 99.9% of people who have used illegal drugs recently, they think anyone who fails that test is 99.9% certain to have used illegal drugs. NOT SO! In some cases, "false positives" can outnumber "true positives" by a factor of two or more.

Here is a great example of how much forward and inverse probabilities may differ. The probability a person is female given that they are pregnant is: P(F;P) = 100%. But probability a person in pregnant given that they are female is: P(P;F) ~ 3%

QUANTIFYING THE RISK OF OIL EXPLORATION

Bayesian probability means, using oil exploration as a practical example, you can figure out the probability you will strike commercially-viable oil if you drill a well at a particular location given that a seismic test was positive. With the value of petroleum going up and down so rapidly in the past few years, this illustrates the fine line between making a big profit and going broke in the oil patch.


MY BAYESIAN AI ADVISOR

Some years ago I created a Bayesian AI ("Artificial Intelligence") Advisor spreadsheet that runs on Excel. I've recently improved the Bayesian AI Advisor and today I published a new Google Knol that explains its use. You are invited to download the Bayesian AI Advisor to your PC.

Of course, Bayesian probability applies to many areas in addition to oil exploration. My Knol looks at targeted marketing (what is the chance a given person will buy my product given that he or she has bought some other product in the past?) and medical testing (what is the chance a person has a particular disease given that he or she tests positive?)

QUICK LOOK AT THE RESULTS FOR "DRILL HERE? DRILL NOW?"


The figure shows three cases for oil exploration with three different recomendations. I think this illustrates the risk of oil exploration and that it could be applied to the financial implications of investment in alternative forms of energy.

The user has to input the data in the clear cells, based on known probabilities and financial factors. The leftmost panel shows a case where the Bayesian AI Advisor recommends Test first, If Test is Positive, do the Procedure - in other words, do a seismic test and, if the results are positive, drill.

The middle panel shows the case where all factors are the same except the value of petroleum has gone down by 15% and now the recommendation is Hopeless venture. (Can you reduce expected ROI?) - in other words, do not waste money doing the seismic testing because, even if you get a positive result, it will not pay to do the drilling given the financial assumptions you have entered, unless you are willing to increase the risk to your investors by reducing the expected Return on Investment.

The rightmost panel shows the case where, in a different location in the oil patch, the probabilities of success are much better. Now the recommendation is No Need to Test. Go ahead with the Procedure. - in other words, this area is so good you don't have to waste money doing seismic testing, just go right ahead and drill and you are likely to strike commercially-viable oil and get rich.

Ira Glickstein

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Decisions, Decisions - Here's a Method and Tool That Could Help

I recently posted another Google Knol - a bit of knowledge. This one is a rational method for chosing one item from a group of attractive alternatives, particularly in the case where your spouse or business associates differ. It is a process we called a "Trade Study" at work.

"Buying a house, car, pet or PC? Choosing among alternative courses of action at work? Do you and your spouse or your colleagues differ on which choice to make?

"Here is how to get everyone involved to 'put their cards on the table' and make a rational choice that will best serve your needs. A relatively simple Excel-based tool helps you make the right decision, including decisions in the face of uncertainty! It is available for FREE."

The Knol is at http://knol.google.com/k/ira-glickstein/decision-aiding-tool-do-a-trade-study/3ncxde0rz8dtk/5# and it contains a link to a Decision Tool that runs atop the MS Excel spreadsheet that one of my students back at Binghamton University created some years ago and I have upgraded over the years.

If you have a decision to make, have a look!

Ira Glickstein