Big Global Warming Debate at The Villages (FL) Science Tech Club

The title of the debate was "Two Views on Human-Caused Global Warming". Fellow Villager Don Fogg took the AFFIRMATIVE and I (Ira Glickstein) took the NEGATIVE in a friendly but spirited debate with considerable participation by the overflow audience. Our mutual friend, Steve Hendrickson, was kind enough to video the entire event. The photos  in this Blog posting are frame grabs from his excellent video.

Our combined PowerPoint chart set is available from The Villages Science Technology Club at: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YPiXPuaHLcXeP3p2D_d5AfNekEXMIwVg/view  

We agreed on five QUITE SPECIFIC debate ISSUES, as listed at the bottom of the following photo:

For the most part, this was a science-based debate because Don and I agree on most of the basic science. Our level of agreement was stated in the following stipulations:

Both parties agree, for purposes of this debate, that:

1.The Atmospheric “Greenhouse” Effect is true science. Atmospheric gases, mostly Water Vapor and CO2, are responsible for the Earth surface being about 33⁰C warmer due to this effect. All else being equal, a rise in CO2 will cause mean temperatures to rise. 

2.CO2 levels in the Atmosphere have been rising at an unprecedented rate over the past century, from less than 300ppmv to over 400ppmv. At least half of that rise is due to human activities, primarily burning of fossil fuels.

3.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued five “Assessment Reports” from 1990 to 2013, with projections for future warming based on over 100 Climate Models.

4.NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is the main US-government funded Climate agency, tracking, reporting, and adjusting historical US and world-wide terrestrial thermometer data (1880-present), and contributing to the IPCC.

5.The US government also funds satellite systems that measure lower atmospheric temperatures, available since 1979. University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) are the major US-government funded groups for satellite-based world-wide temperature tracking.

IRA'S MAIN DEBATE POINTS

1) While the Earth Surface has definitely warmed since 1880, and some portion of  that warming is due to human activities (mainly burning unprecedented quantities of fossil fuels and land use changes) the AMOUNT of warming has been inflated by around 0.5⁰C and the DEGREE of human-causation has been exaggerated.

2) The Official Climate Models, based on the IPCC and NASA-GISS Climate Theory, run HOT. They thus give an over-stated sense of danger and therefore urgency, which is not supported by the rather modest warming.

3) As Richard Feynman famously said
"It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong."

The Official Climate Theory is wrong in that Climate Models based on that Theory run HOT compared to the observational data. Thus, the climate "experiment" results do not agree with the  theory. The Official Climate Team should correct their theory. Instead, they  have inflated their observational data!

I believe the major problem with the Climate Models is how they treat CLOUDS. Daytime clouds have a net NEGATIVE impact on warming, while nighttime clouds have a POSITIVE impact. The Climate Models assume, incorrectly IMHO, that the overall net effect of increasing clouds (daytime and nighttime) is POSITIVE, while, based on actual data, it is NEGATIVE. In addition, the Climate Models do not properly account for thunderstorms, which remove heat from the surface and move it into the Atmosphere where it can more easily be radiated out to space.

There are over 100 Official IPCC Climate Models that date from the early 1990's. These Climate Models have been updated with each Assessment Report issued. Taking their 2007 report, called "AR4", the average of all their Climate Model PREDICTIONS (which they call "projections") have tended to be WARMER, by a factor of two or three than the best worldwide temperature measurements.

[Added 13 Feb 2018] For example, when the AR4 Predictions are aligned with the Berkeley Earth Surface Air Temperature (as in the photo below), the predictions for the years following 2007 go up sharply by about 0.2⁰C, but actual measurements show an increase of less than 0.1⁰C.

As Yogi Berra famously said: "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the FUTURE."

Climate Model predictions about the PAST are called "retro-dictions" and one would expect any good Climate Model would retro-dict the PAST quite well, because the scientists constructing the models have actual data from the PAST in hand. Never-the-less, as  the photo shows, the average retro-dictions run hot by about 0.2⁰C for the period 1880 through 1940. [End of added material]


ADJUSTMENTS TO US TEMPERATURE DATA

As the following slide indicates, US terrestrial temperature data, based on thousands of observations of surface-based thermometers by dedicated Americans since 1880, has been adjusted by American scientists at NASA-GISS at least seven times between 1999 and the present.

The slide focuses on two specific very warm years, 1998 and 1934. However, the adjustments affected virtually all temperature data from the 1920's through the 1990's. US Temperatures for the years prior to the 1970's were cooled, and for the years following the 1970's were warmed.

As NASA-GISS reported in 1999, the US, in 1934, was over half a degree C (0.541⁰C) WARMER than 1998. This was, shall we say "inconvenient" since their objective was to alert the American public to what they thought was a future of catastrophic human-caused warming.

The data points on the chart are based on a surprisingly candid 14 Aug 2007 email from NASA-GISS Research Scientist Makiko Sato, PhD, to her boss James Hansen, PhD. (The email was released in 2010 due to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) action by Judicial Watch.) 

Sato's FOIA email details the results of seven adjustments (YOUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK :^(.

Sato started in 2000 and 2001, where by two mighty analysis efforts she got 1934 to COOL by about a quarter degree C, and 1998 to WARM by a similar amount. However, even after  this effort, 1934 was still a bit WARMER than 1998.

The data sat undisturbed in her desk for four years, until 2005, when a third analysis kept 1934 about as COOL as it had been according to her year 2001 effort. However (HORRORS!!!) 1998 COOLED back down about a quarter degree C, back to the original values reported in 1999. So according to her 2005 analysis, the US in 1934 had been about a quarter degree C WARMER than 1998.

Sato's boss, James Hansen, was a key technical advisor to Al Gore for his "Inconvenient Truth" lecture tour and movie, scheduled for release in 2007. So, if  the Earth was supposed to be in a HUMAN-CAUSED CATASTROPHIC WARMING trend, it was "inconvenient" for the warmest US year in the last half of the 20th century to be COOLER than the warmest year in the first half. 

So, Sato did three more analyses in January 2007 (the fourth since 1998), March (2007 the fifth since 1998), and August 2007 (the sixth since 1998). She got 1934 and 1998 very close to the same temperatures. Indeed, although the January and August analyses had 1998 a bit COOLER, the March analysis, after heroic effort by Sato, got 1998 a teeny-tiny bit WARMER than 1934.

However, despite this triple re-analysis attack Sato's FOIA email ends with 1934 still a bit WARMER than 1934, but only by a teeny-tiny 0.003⁰C.

Never-the-less, in the years following Sato's 2007 email, NASA-GISS continued to plough your taxpayer dollars into re-analysis of the 1934 and 1998 data. I looked up the latest US data on their website, and 1998 is finally over a tenth degree C (0.114⁰C) WARMER than poor old 1934.

ON THE NASA-GISS WEBSITE THEY ADMIT "These adjustments caused an increase of about 0.5⁰C in the US mean for the period 1900 to 1990." See:   https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/faq/#q215
(NOTE: By my accounting, the actual increase is over 0.6⁰C, but "close enough for government work"!)

NASA-GISS also notes the adjusted data is only "1.6% of the Earth's surface". The implication being these adjustments have minimal impact on world-wide data.  See: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

HOWEVER, IF AMERICAN SCIENTISTS CANNOT ANALYZE AMERICAN DATA TO WITHIN HALF A DEGREE C, WHY WOULD ANYONE BELIEVE WORLD-WIDE DATA (SOME OF IT FROM THIRD-WORLD COUNTRIES) AND ASSOCIATED ANALYSIS IS ANY BETTER?

I spot a definite WARMING TREND, do you? If we look at this data in future years, I fully expect 1998 to take its "rightful" place at least 0.5⁰C WARMER than bad old 1934. OUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK.

The Official rationale for the repeated adjustments (at least seven by my count) is that, over the many years since 1880, US thermometer readers tended to read their thermometers at different times of day.We all know that early morning and late evening tends to be cooler than midday (sometimes by 10⁰C !) Also, when the thermometer sites are relocated, say from the local newspaper office to a new airport, the new site may be a bit warmer or cooler. So, those changes, quite obviously, have to be taken into account to make sure errors are not introduced.

Are we to believe that James Hansen (head of NASA-GISS starting in 1981) and his respected research scientists did not know about these Time of Observation and Site Relocation effects until 2000? Hansen had worked on Climate Science for over 19 years before he and his staff realized adjustments were necessary?

Does anyone believe that, when they finally figured out they had to make these adjustments, it  took them seven analyses, over a decade or more, to get the "RIGHT" answer?

I tend to believe that many government-funded research projects are done less than competently. However, I simply do not believe Hansen and Sato were that incompetent.

No, I think they saw it as their "duty" to warn us about an impending climate catastrophe (and thus keep taxpayer money coming in), so they beat the old US data mercilessly, until they got the "RIGHT" results. (The 1934 data was old enough to qualify for Social Security :^).

If these were the inflation-adjusted profit reports of a corporation trying to spin a tale of continually-increasing profits, and the data published in 1999 showed 1998 was $ 0.5 Billion LESS profitable than 1934, and seven subsequent published reports showed variously changing reports ending with a virtual tie, would anyone believe it? Any competent observer would suspect "the books have been cooked!"

SUMMARY

TRUTH-IN-ADVERTISING: ALL GOVERNMENT-FUNDED RESEARCH WILL INEVITABLY YIELD RESULTS DESIGNED TO YIELD FURTHER FUNDING.

I'd love to see comments posted to this Topic (especially by Don). In accordance with my duties as Moderator of my Blog, I promise to approve any substantive response, positive or negative. Also, if Don or any of his allies wish to post an entire Topic commenting on or refuting my claims, I will happily grant them the status of Authorized Author on this Blog.

Ira Glickstein

My Remarkable Grand-Uncle Max Leibowitz

As the images in this posting show, my Grand-Uncle Max Leibowitz was a remarkable artist in aluminum sheet-metal. He was also one of my favorite relatives. Although he lived in the Bronx, he'd often travel to Brooklyn for our Friday family evening dinners in the basement apartment of his older Brother, my Grandfather Louis, and my Grandmother Lena.

Uncle Max would always bring an excellent cake, purchased at the wonderful Jewish bakery on Brighton Beach Avenue, beneath the elevated BMT station. My Parents, Ruth and Morris, my younger Brother Lee, and I would be so happy to see him! When I was small, he'd grab my hands and lift me with his powerful arms. Then he'd spin around, with the centrifugal force lifting my legs up in the air. 

Some examples of the aluminum sheet-metal artistry of my Grand-Uncle Max Leibowitz.

[Upper left] A trio of aluminum sheet-metal penguins (always remind me of the wonderful kids book "Mr. Popper's Penguins") and a spectacular elephant with a canopied seat fit for Russia's Queen Katherine the Great.

[Lower left] A shoehorn with a "V" for my wife Vi and a jewelry box made for her.

[Right] This woodcut of Max was done by Isaac Friedlander in 1957. (Thanks to Cousin Fran for the image. I remember Uncle Max gave us a print, and it hung in the 2nd-floor walk-up one bedroom apartment where my parents, brother, and I lived. I have no idea where it is now.) 

WHERE DID HE COME FROM AND WHO WAS HE?

Uncle Max came to the US from Russia [see NOTE below]. Like many others in the Russian Jewish community in the early 1900's, he left his home country to escape poverty and pogroms. (Like those in the classic play and movie "Fiddler on the Roof".)

Uncle Max's sheet-metal artistry was strictly a hobby. He was a professional sheet-metal craftsman. His regular job involved creating models for products that were later put into production for customers. 

I believe Max's Brother, my Grandfather Louis, came to the US first. Louis was the eldest of 13 siblings, and newly married. He was followed by his brother Max, and sisters Dora, Fanny, and Zelda. An upholsterer, Grandpa Louis was also an artist in his trade, as were his sisters Zelda (a woman's fashion designer) and Fanny (who designed costumes and fashions for Hollywood productions).

Most of Louis and Max's other brothers and sisters remained in Russia. I do not know how many survived WWII, but, after that war, my Grandfather exchanged letters with at least one Brother, Yasha.

Max's first wife was a taciturn woman named Irene. They had one daughter, who moved away to Mexico and married well. When Irene passed away, Max started taking ballroom dancing lessons and ended up marrying the instructor, Barbara. The product of that romance is my cousin Hope ("Tiki" in Hebrew), who now lives in Canada, and is a Facebook friend of mine. 

When I posted photos of Uncle Max's artwork to Facebook, my cousin Fran and my daughter Lisa posted photos of some of his artwork they happened to own. Also, Fran's brother, my cousin Philip, posted that he feels like he is channeling Uncle Max when he is in his art studio!

PHOTO OF UNCLE MAX

The only photo of Uncle Max I could find for my Facebook posting was this one. It shows Max, his wife Barbara, and daughter Hope at my wedding in 1964. I'll continue to look for an additional photos. If any cousins who read this happen to have one, please email and I'll be happy to add it. advTHANKSance!

[Upper left] Uncle Max at our 1964 wedding with his wife Barbara and daughter Hope "Tiki" Leibowitz, now one of my Facebook friends.

Others in photo (from left) are cousin Adele "Delly" and her parents Izzy and Diane Levine; Vi and Ira; and friends of my parents, the Aufrichtigs and Kaufmans. 

MORE EXAMPLES OF MAX LEIBOWITZ'S METAL ARTISTRY

After I posted my pictures to Facebook, my Daughter Lisa and Cousin Fran posted photos they had. I especially appreciate the woodcut image of Uncle Max provided by Cousin Fran.

A dresser tray and my Grand-Aunt Zelda's hair ornament, created by Uncle Max. (Photo from Zelda's Grand-Daughter, my Cousin Fran.)

A dog created by Uncle Max. My Daughter Lisa proudly displays it on her mantle at home. (Thanks for the photo Lisa!)

Close-up image of a penguin and elephant created by Uncle Max. 

NOTE: My Grandfather always said they were from the Russian city of Ekaterinoslav (Russian: Екатериносла́в, translit. Yekaterinoslav). However, although they considered themselves ethnically Russian, it appears they were from an area that is actually in the Ukraine!

After the Russian revolution, Ekaterinoslav, originally named in honor of Katherine the Great, was renamed Dnepropetrovsk, (Russian: Днепропетро́вск), because it is on the Dneiper River. Dnepropetrovsk is in the Ukrainian section of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR).

If you've been following current events, you may know that, after the breakup of the USSR, Ukraine became independent. The two eastern provinces, which have majority Russian ethnic populations, have been in a tug-of-war between the main part of Ukraine and the Russian Federation. The Dneiper River is the dividing line between the contesting parties.

In 2016, Dnepropetrovsk was renamed Dnipro (Ukrainian: Дніпро).

Ira Glickstein

Unveiling Rena Moyer's Gravestone

Unveiling Rena's Gravestone. Milton, GA (north of Atlanta), 11 November 2017

Today, in accordance with the Jewish custom to unveil the gravestone a year after death, family members and friends of Rena Moyers gathered at the Milton Fields Green Cemetery, north of Atlanta, to remember and celebrate her life. Her husband, David Moyers, her mother and father Vi and Ira Glickstein, her sister Lisa Glickstein, her nieces Michaela and Samantha Hagler, and brother-in-law Jerry Hagler were joined by Rena's caretaker Harriet Frempong and her husband Yaw.

The service was beautifully conducted by Chaplain Lamora of Tranquility Center at Cobb Hospice in Austell, GA. Like Rena's life, which ended all too soon at the age of 49, the service was brief but so very meaningful. It is said that a good entertainer always leaves the audience wanting more. A great one packs more meaning into fewer moments. Chaplain Lamora read several traditional Hebrew blessings (in English) and recalled her memories of Rena during her time in Hospice. Rena's mother, Vi, and her husband David, and others, made brief comments, and Samantha read a poem that Lisa thoughtfully brought along.

There was a slight chill in the air, but it was a beautiful day at the Milton Fields Green Cemetery. As the photos indicate, Milton Fields is a very green "natural burial ground" with flat, horizontal grave markers rather than vertical headstones.

Last year, during the week of her passing, the following seven Blog postings recalled some of the highlights of Rena's life, as a sort of virtual "sitting shiva". According to Wikipedia, Shiva (Hebrew: שבעה‎‎, literally "seven") is the week-long mourning period for first-degree relatives. The ritual is referred to as "sitting shiva". According to Jewish law, we assume the status of "avel" (Hebrew: אבל; "mourner"). This state lasts for seven days, during which family members traditionally gather and receive visitors.

In our modern times, when families live all over the US and the World, and where literal belief is scarce, it isn't really practical for first-degree relations to sit around on couches in the living room for a week wearing slippers. Therefore, I thought it fitting for those closest to the deceased to make a special effort to remember her (at least) during the week of her departure.

September 11, 2016 - Rena passed away
1) September 12, 2016 - Rest In Peace Rena Moyers, Our Adult Child Who Passed Before We Did
2) September 13, 2016 - Mr.and Mrs. David and Rena Moyers - Their Wedding (and Drama Afterwards)
3) September 14, 2016 - Remembering Rena - Growing Up in Rural Upstate New York
4) September 15, 2016 - Remembering Rena - Education and Professional Life - Tale of Three Shirts
5) September 16, 2016 - Mourner's Kaddish for Rena Moyers
6) September 17, 2016 - Remembering Auntie Rena - Five Nieces and Nephews
7) September 18, 2016 - Remembering Rena - We Will Remember You FOREVER

Ira Glickstein

Fake Feminists, Hollywood Hypocrites, and the NoBodyCares (NBC) About Democratic Sex Scandals Network

In an EMERGENCY meeting yesterday, the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences kicked out one of their most famous and successful movie producers. Harvey Weinstein is accused, by three dozen women, of unwanted "casting couch" sexual advances over decades. This is a case where, apparently "EVERYBODY" in Hollywood knew, and even joked about it at award ceremonies, revealing themselves as Fake Feminists and Hollywood Hypocrites.

Good for Rachel Maddow! She conducted a very timely interview of Ronan Farrow. He broke the Weinstein sexual harassment story at the New Yorker, after Maddow's colleagues and management at the NBC network killed his story. 

Lets call it the NoBodyCares about Democratic sex scandals NBC network from now on.

Ronan Farrow, once a full-time MSNBC host and NBC News correspondent, got the story and had multiple witnesses statements and videos, as well as a 2015 NYPD audio tape of Weinstein's misconduct, but NBC management killed the story. Apparently, at NBC, NoBodyCares about Democratic sex scandals!  

Rachel Maddow deserves credit for breaking ranks with her NBC colleagues and interviewing Farrow on her program in a timely manner.

NBC is the network that had the Billy Bush "Access Hollywood" tape of Donald Trump, in 2005,  making extremely lewd remarks about his treatment of women. However, that was in 2005, when Trump was registered as a DEMOCRAT in his native New York City, and  the tape was securely locked away.

It was not until 2016, when Trump became the REPUBLICAN nominee for President, that the devastating tape finally saw the light of day. Further proof that NBC is the NoBodyCares about Democratic sex scandals network. They were right to release the tape because Trump is a public  figure, but why did they protect him when he was a Democrat?

Ira Glickstein

Coyote Chorus - Another View of the NFL Controversy

[From Bill Lifka. Graphic by Ira.]

Group Yip Howl

Coyotes vocalize more than any other of the canids, which include wolves, foxes and dogs. Like wolves and foxes, coyotes enjoy eating those dogs and cats which are sufficiently small for them to attack successfully.

For three nights now, a coyote family group has sung its chorus probably no more than 50 yards beyond our fence. The song is one of 11 – 13 melodic compositions identified by an expert, each having a distinctive meaning. It’s a chorus because this particular tune requires at least two of the animals, but usually more. In our case, it’s the alpha male, his alpha female mate and their three beta offspring.

Their composition is called the Group Yip Howl. The alpha male howls, the alpha female “screams, gargles and laughs” and the beta coyotes yip randomly. The purpose of all this noise is to note their separating for individual hunts or their coming together after these hunts. The racket can be heard for two miles and notifies other coyote packs how many are in this pack. In this manner, coyote packs space themselves for optimum hunting territories. Also, in the mysterious ways of nature, coyote litters become smaller when the territories are crowded and larger when territories are less densely populated.

NFL Controversy

The first time I heard this Group Yip Howl, it reminded me of any news program on CNN or the other leftist TV channels as they spew out their hatred over President Trump’s “stealing” the election from Hillary. Currently, it’s the flap over NFL players kneeling during the playing of the National Anthem before football games. The president commented on this disrespectful behavior in his usual colorful fashion to afford the media another opportunity to label him as a racist.

As every Progressive knows, being a racist is much worse than having a traitorous discussion with Russians and all discussions with Russians must be traitorous, according to their current dogma. Before the purpose of “taking the knee” morphed into any number of imaginary grievances, it signified opposition to the “practice” of police officers shooting Black males in increasing numbers. It made no difference that actual data shows exactly opposite results.

But President Trump’s remarks gave the Progressive Media Moguls a tangible target, or so they thought.  I must have heard/seen Trump’s remarks two dozen times or more. It was unavoidable if I turned on the TV. No matter how I tried, I couldn’t understand the racist charges. Beyond that, all who know Trump regard him to be color blind. On the other hand, Trump is an insulter, but he’s an equal opportunity insulter.

Trump is also not as dumb as the Media Mavens pretend. He defined “taking the knee” as a direct insult to the military personnel fighting and dying in Afghanistan. In that interpretation, it’s not easy to sympathize with the kneelers. Despite wanting to pacify their Black players, some NFL teams just didn’t show up on field until after the playing of the anthem. Some stood and linked arms as a sign of “solidarity”. Some continued to allow those who wanted to kneel do so regardless of many fans’ opposition. 

Tune in any CNN news program involving a panel and see a human Group Yip Howl of which a coyote pack would be proud. The alpha male howls. The alpha female screams, gargles and laughs. The beta panelists yip and yip and yip. Their purpose is to rip and tear apart America.
 
I was kneeling in church on Sunday, thinking about how poorly designed are the kneelers in the pews of every Catholic Church in my experience. (In the beginning, churches had no kneelers; in fact there were no seats, either.) If the pew designers would move the kneelers just four inches more from the seat backs immediately in front they’d calibrate with the kneeling human form more comfortably. (Perhaps a little bit of torture is intended.)

Are We Misjudging NFL Players?

[Sarcasm warning] And then, it struck me that we may be misjudging the NFL players who “take the knee”. Since the time of Alexander the Great, the person who knelt before another was demonstrating reverence or submission. Also, Christians and Muslims kneel in prayer. Perhaps some of the NFL players knelt for those reasons. I imagined what I might be thinking (or praying) if I were a player of that mind.

Dear God (or Uncle Sam), I am eternally grateful for all the blessings which have come my way as a citizen of this great country. If not through chance, I’d be a native of an African country with terrible housing, food, sanitation and health care. The government would be hopelessly corrupt. Unknown plagues would ravage my family and countrymen regularly. Just as regularly, hordes of neighboring tribesmen would attack without warning and carry off my sisters and my wife after killing me and my male friends because we hadn’t adequate weapons to defend us and our loved ones. At best, I’d be captured and sold into slavery in some remote part of the world. 

Of course, that’s what happened to my distant ancestors with the good fortune to be transported to America and the bad fortune it was in irons in the hold of a slave ship. Some were treated very badly and others somewhat better but all had to work hard for a white man’s gain and all had no freedom, which was the worst aspect of their situation. Nevertheless, they were alive and they sired descendants who came to be free and equal citizens. The real blessing was the Constitution that enabled this freedom and opportunity to become prosperous but it might not have been as promised if not for the deaths of 600,000 white men as the price of my freedom and the $ trillions spent in an intent to restore what slavery had lost. 

I’m thankful I grew strong and fast to qualify for this sport. I’m not a good student as are some of my race.  However, I’ve been idolized through high school and college for playing this game and, except for a few hard knocks on the field, I’ve had a fantastic life so far. My coaches kept me on the straight and narrow path to avoid the fate of my childhood friends: early death or jail. I was lucky to tire of all the partying and find the cheerleader of my choice had home management skills beyond wiggling her butt. I think what I’m paid to play this game is ridiculous; all because these White folks pay to see me play. The brothers kneeling besides me are paid an average salary in one year that equals what’s paid to two soldiers who stay on active duty for thirty years, if they avoid having their legs blown off by an IED. They need better agents.  

What it comes down to is I’m the luckiest son of a bitch in this stadium and it’s time I started thinking of payback beyond taking my lumps today and dealing out a few myself. I can make an effort to show some of the young brothers on the street there’s a life beyond dope and killing. I’ll give it more than a try, I promise. I owe it to America.

Is it possible one of the kneeling players could be thinking that way? I’d like to think there are more than one. But it only takes one. Only one started the whole sorry thing.

Bill Lifka

                       

Beyond Communism - the Emergence of a Newly Prosperous and Increasingly Capitalist CHINA!

OUR CHINA TRIP - An Overview

LEFT: At Shanghai China Disney World, my "Chairman Mao"  hat attracted a software engineer who works for Alibaba (Chinese version of Amazon) for an interesting discussion. MIDDLE: At Disney with three of my favorite  women, my Wife Vi, Daughter Lisa, and Granddaughter Michaela. RIGHT: Brooklyn T-Shirt atop the Great Wall of China

Vi and I visited China in September 2017, starting with a standard professionally-guided tour of Beijing, Xian, and Shanghai. We added a self-directed visit to Suzhou where our Granddaughter Michaela, a Hospitality major at Purdue University, was in the midst of a six month internship at a hotel. We also visited Shanghai Disney World, along with our daughter Lisa (Michaela's mother) who was on a separate tour of China, and Anna, a fellow intern with Michaela. We are indebted to each of them (Lisa, Michaela, and Anna) for guiding and helping two elder travelers during these off-tour activities. The Chinese people we met, including those being paid to serve us as well as total volunteers with little or no knowledge of English, were uniformly helpful and kind.

A visit of fewer than a dozen days to four popular business and tourist areas in China certainly does not make me any kind of expert on this topic. Therefore, please accept this posting as the questionable opinions of a rather casual observer. Like the "Pussy cat" in the well-known ditty*, I have well-worn interests and biases. *Pussy cat, pussy cat,, where have you been? I've been to London to visit the Queen. Pussy cat, pussy cat, what saw you there? I saw a little mouse under a chair. Yes, the cat missed all the finery and luxury of the Queen's palace in favor of that lowly mouse under the chair! Perhaps we all miss some majestic sights as we are drawn to the familiar?

Vi in Tiananmen Square where Chairman Mao's portrait hangs prominently. His visage appears on Chinese currency. 

We found China to be surprisingly modern and prosperous, with open, helpful, and accepting people who seemed genuinely happy to have us visit, anxious to try out their often limited (but sometimes quite good) English. They are in the midst of revolutionary changes in their economic and political systems. The situation may be very different in other areas of China, particularly some less developed "autonomous regions" such as those with substantial non-Han Chinese populations.

No More "True Believer" Marxists in the World?

Both Russia and China are far more "Capitalistic" than you might expect, and are rapidly moving in that positive direction.

Our experiences in "Communist" China confirmed our experiences from a brief visit to "Communist" St. Petersburg, Russia, a few years ago, . There are no longer any really "true believer" Marxists left in the World (except for a few Professors teaching at Universities in the US and other Western countries :^)

The core ideal at the heart of Marxist Socialism "From each according to their abilities, to each according to their needs" is certainly heart-warming, but does not stand up to any serous analysis. It flies in opposition to basic human  nature! Most of us will not voluntarily work to the maximum of our abilities unless we are rewarded for doing so, or punished if we fail to do so. Furthermore, most of  us will consume far more resources than we actually need unless we must personally bear the associated costs.

Thus, all attempts to implement Marxist ideals on a large scale, such as those of "Red" China and "Communist" Russia, as well as other extreme Socialist countries such as Venezuela, have resulted in either an Authoritarian police-state society, or, in the best case, Extreme Bureaucracy, general poverty, and pervasive scarcity. As Milton Friedman, one of my special heroes, quipped: "If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand."

The only realistic and humane alternative is a market-oriented competitive Capitalistic system, with visible rewards for those who work to the limits of their abilities. Of course, to be truly humane, the system must provide necessary welfare protections for those who absolutely cannot find gainful employment.

George Orwell's Animal Farm

In George Orwell's 1945 classic Animal Farm, the Pigs [Communists] lead a revolt of their fellow animals [Proletariat] against the Man [Capitalist] who owns the farm. Their motto, “All animals are equal" is soon transformed to "All animals are equal, but some animals [the Pigs-Communists] are more equal than others.”

At the end, when the Pig-Communists move into the farmhouse, adopt the manners and lifestyle of humans, and align themselves with human society external to the Farm,  “The creatures outside [the farmhouse] looked from pig [Communist] to man [Capitalist], and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.”

Capitalistic China

Our first impressions of China were of Beijing airport, which, other than the crowds of Chinese people and signage, could have been any airport in the US or Europe. The taxi ride to our hotel plunged us into heavy traffic. Our driver (who spoke no English) showed his expertise in beeping and angling the taxi to prevent other cars from pulling in ahead of us. He had an uncanny ability to scoot from lane to lane and around other cars. He could have given cab-driver lessons in our native Brooklyn, NY!

Our Novotel Peace Hotel was modern and comfortable, with spectacular views from our 28th floor window, despite the somewhat smoggy air. The only negative surprise was the poorly-designed tub-shower that had a glass wall that blocked access to the water controls. You had to get fully into the tub to turn on the water. That meant you'd get splashed by the initially cold water. Furthermore, the tub, although not particularly deep, was way above the level of  the floor, a significant slipping hazard when getting out.

Our tour director, Lee, spoke excellent English, and shared well-received stories of his family life, including the hazards of the 1960's and 1970s "cultural revolution" and of his mother-in-law. In Xian we had a second leader, Peter, an expert who has worked on restoring the terracotta warriors. He too shared personal stories. He told us to look for him on a PBS documentary scheduled for release around the new year 2018.

Our bus comfortably accommodated the 26 members of our group. We soon became friendly with several of our tour-mates, including those from Bulgaria (now living in South Africa), Canada, England, and various  states in the US.

Flying and Touring Routine

The travel and tour was physically and mentally demanding, especially considering our ages, 75 and 78. We traveled by taxi from home to the Villages Transportation terminal at Spanish Springs, their Van to the Orlando FL airport, changing planes at Los Angeles CA, and again at Hong Kong for the flight to Beijing. That all took over 36 hours from home to hotel. We were exactly 12 hours off from our home time, so the "jetlag" was significant. The tour day usually started with a 7AM hotel  breakfast and an 8AM departure for sightseeing. There was a lot of walking, particularly the first few days at Tiananmen Square ("Temple of Peace"), the Forbidden City, and the Great Wall.

After the touring day, I usually ventured out alone, or at times with Vi, to walk the streets in the hotel vicinity, seeking a convenience store, supermarket, American fast-food, and so on. The streets were teeming with aggressive vendors and lined with small food shops, restaurants, and other stores. All, as far as I could tell, were strictly privately-owned and operated. I was impressed by large, multi-level and very modern shopping centers, featuring intentionally known brand names.

Scooters and bicycles, along with crowds of Chinese people, flowed along the sidewalks. I was continually surprised that no one ever seemed to get pushed or run over.

Crossing the street was an adventure! A plethora of people, cars, trucks, buses, scooters and bicycles seemingly regarded the traffic lanes and lights as mere decoration. I followed the advice of our tour leader and adopted a "sticky rice" strategy of embedding myself in a crowd of Chinese people and going with the flow.

After the organized tour, we had the opportunity to use taxis and public transportation, under the very able tutorship of Michaela and Anna. Both are excellent and inexpensive.

Bottled Water

Throughout our trip we were required  to use bottled water, and were told not to use tap water at the hotel for drinking or brushing our teeth. Drinking fountains were not generally available anywhere. The hotels provided two or four free small bottles that we usually put into the refrigerator. Additional water was an expense.

At airports, safe water was available for free, but it was either a choice between "hot" and "warm". I brought empty plastic water bottles through airport security and filled them with the "warm" water. Chilled water in bottles was available but cost around $2 each. I  noticed that some Chinese people had bottles with tea leaves in them, and they would use the "hot" water to make tea. The tea was weak and almost colorless since the tea leaves were used multiple times. At Disney they had safe water fountains, but that was an exception.

Internet Blocking in China

We had very good free Wi-Fi internet availability at Chinese airports (Beijing, Xian, and Shanghai) and at our fine hotels in those cities as well as in Suzhou. However, throughout our time in China, I could not gain access to my Google Groups or Google BlogSpot accounts. Facebook, however, continued to work OK. Our granddaughter (in the midst of her internship at a hotel in Suzhou) had suggested that I could use an app called "ExpressVPN", which, for a fee, would give us access to at least some of the blocked sites. However, the front desk agent who signed us in at our first hotel told me that ExpressVPN was not legal in China, and, since I had access to other internet features, I did not try to use ExpressVPN.

Cable TV Access in China

At each of the our hotels, we had access to many TV channels, in each case including several in English. All hotels had Bloomberg. Two had CNN, and some had the BBC, CNBC, and HBO, as well as an English-language Chinese station. However, I  never saw Fox News or Fox Business, nor did I see MSNBC. I don't know if this situation was due to blocking by the government or simply a matter of cost control by the hotels.

Some Highlights of Our China Tour

Please note that I generally do not take photos of the sights and scenery since better, professionally-taken photos are generally available online. Therefore, most of my photos feature images of family, friends, and me.

Beijing Area

Novotel Peace Hotel. The tour included: Tiananmen Square, Forbidden City, Temple of Heaven, Great Wall, Ming Tombs, Rickshaw Tour, Home Lunch, Foot Massage, Big Wild Goose Pagoda.

Courtyard of private Chinese home where we enjoyed a wonderful meal with our tour group..

Note yellow bike on right is one of tens of thousands all over the city streets that can be unlocked by cellphone code and borrowed for a fee. 

Our Rickshaw Driver allowed me to sit in the driver's seat and pretend to pedal Vi around tte town.

Great Wall of China Panorama. TOP: Note Vi in blue sitting. BOTTOM: View looking upward as Wall rises steeply.

Xian ("She Ann") Area

Sheraton North City. The tour included: Elementary School Visit, Terracotta Warriors, Xian Old Market Area.

At an Elementary school in Xian. My student is Pang Zi Han, who wrote her name in Chinese and copied some English words for me. Vi sits with her student behind me. They asked for a volunteer to teach the class some English. I was the first. I drew the Earth, pointed out North, South, East and West, located China and USA, then I sketched a separate map of the United States noting New York where my wife and I were born and educated and worked, Florida where we retired, and California from where we flew to China.

Vi and I view the famous Terracotta Warriors. At the right is a "warrior" who looks a lot like me :^)

Shanghai Area

Hilton Jing'an. The tour included: Bund, Waterfront, Old Shanghai, Acrobats Variety Show.

Vi at Shanghai waterfront skyline. Vi on the Shanghai Bund takes the bull by the horn. 

Shanghai Disney World (on our own with Lisa, Michaela, and Anna).

Suzhou ("Sue Joe") Area

Jingi Lake Grand Hotel (where Michaela and Anna are interning).

Michaela and Anna arranged a walk and a golf-cart tour around the lush forested grounds and lake. Vi relaxed as Michaela and I used their impressive and humongous swimming pool and hot tubs.

Michaela and Anna took me, by taxi, to the old town area, intending to visit the museum. It turned out the museum happened to be closed, which was fortunate! We walked along narrow a narrow alley with shops on both sides, along their canals (reminiscent of Venice), took a woman-powered canal boat tour (and she sang!). We consumed a freshly-made waffle cones with ice cream and jelly balls.

In the lobby of the Suzhou Jingi Lake Grand Hotel where our Granddaughter Michaela, a Hospitality major at Purdue University, is interning. 

Suzhou. China - we went to museum by taxi but it was closed. turned out great because we walked down narrow lanes, dodging scooters and bikes. We walked along the canals and got to ride a canal boat

Suzhou China - fantastic pool and hot tub complex in hotel where Michaela is interning.

She is a competitive swimmer and treated Vi and me to dinner at her hotel using two awards

earned by winning swimming races against other hotel personnel.

Suzhou China - freshly made waffle cone after wonderful singing woman-powered canal boat

Journey with Michaela and Anna. ZOOM IN TO SEE WAFFLE COME!

Early Evening Suzhou Lake View - TOP: Note Ira and Michaela near right edge. BOTTOM: Chinese family enjoys life. 

Shanghai Pudong Airport Area

Ramada Plaza Pudong Airport Hotel. Our 5th-floor room overlooked the airport. We could see the terminal and the planes. We had dinner and breakfast at  the hotel.

We took the hotel courtesy van to the Shanghai Pudong Airport, changing planes at Hong Kong, changing again to San Francisco CA, changing again to Charlotte NC, and getting off the plane then on again to Orlando FL for the Villages Transportation van and taxi home. Again over 36 hours with a 12-hour time difference. We each had a bit of digestive upset and health issues, but they were mostly remedied by the medications Vi thoughtfully brought along.