All about the abuse of anecdotal math to falsify the truth and truthify falsehood.Mark Twain famously wrote:
Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." [from the Autobiography of Mark Twain]
He was implying that, of the three classes of lies, statistics were the worst. Others have added to the list, in order of falseness:
- Lies
- Damned Lies
- Statistics
- Politicians Quoting Statistics
- Journalists Quoting Politicians Quoting Statistics
This new topic posting (like a presentation at a physical club meeting) gives some examples of how anecdotal math and statistics are used to confuse the public.
A large percentage of the population is “mathematically challenged.” Their eyes glaze over like deer caught in headlights whenever someone uses numbers and mathematics to argue for their version of the truth. Some even proclaim their innumeracy as if it was a badge of honor!
The result is that many educated people are convinced to accept falsehoods as truth and to discard truths as falsehoods.
This first example has to do with the need for reason as well as mathematics.
Please read this poem:
When I was going to St. Ives,
I met a man with seven wives,
Each wife had seven sacks,
Each sack had seven cats,
Each cat had seven kits,
Kits, cats, sacks, wives,
How many were going to St. Ives?
Can you figure out the answer? If you think you know the answer, or how to figure it out, write it down on a scrap of paper. Then, please scroll down and continue reading.
OK. Here is one approach. The poem says:
I met a man with seven wives, so at least
seven wives are going to St. Ives. Right?
The poem continues: "Each wife had seven sacks," so, that would be 7 x 7 = 49 sacks. But, should we count sacks in our total? The last line of the poem asks:
How many were going to St. Ives? It does not ask how many people or how many living things are going, just "how many".
Therefore, let's count the sacks. We have
49 sacks going to St. Ives.
The poem goes on:
Each sack had seven cats, so, that would be 49 x 7 =
343 cats going to St. Ives.The poem adds more information:
Each cat had seven kits, so, that would be 343 x 7 =
2401 kits going to St. Ives. Adding them all together,
Kits, cats, sacks, wives, we get 2401 + 343 + 49 + 7 =
2800 total items going to St. Ives. OK, so that is the answer. Right?
Think about it, then scroll down and continue reading.
OOPS, we forgot the man! We were so engrossed in mathematics we only figured the
Kits, cats, sacks, wives and forgot all about the man who had the seven wives. So let us add him, and we get 2800 + 1 =
2801. OK, so that is the answer. Right?
OOPS again! The first line of the poem says:
When I was going to St. Ives, so we need to add the author of the poem to get the answer to "How many were going to St. Ives?" We get 2801 + 1 =
2802 people and sacks and cats and kits going to St. Ives. OK, so we finally have the answer! Right?
Think about it, then scroll down and continue reading.
2802? No we don't! Read the poem again. All it says is
When I [the author of the poem]
was going to St. Ives. That is just
one person we know of who is going to St. Ives.
All the others, including the man, his wives, the sacks, the cats and the kits could be coming
from St. Ives or coming or going to or from any other place!
So, the correct answer, based on the facts in the poem, is
ONE is going to St. Ives. All the rest is unsupported conjecture.
THE LESSON: Don't jump in and work the mathematics until you understand the logic and reason!
Please comment on this posting!
I plan to post the next part of "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics" in a week or so.
Ira Glickstein