Brooks Law - Management Span of Control Advisor

[Links updated 9 Dec 2018. Google discontinued their "Knol" feature so some of my links no longer worked. I've redirected them to copies of my former Google Knols that I uploaded to my WordPress account.]

Way back in 1975 Frederick Brooks wrote a famous book, The Mythical Man-Month, stating: "Adding manpower to a late software project makes it later."

Other than the now-all-too-obvious sexist nature of his words ("manpower", "Man-Month"), Brooks Law has stood the test of time. Three graphs from the original book with their original captions are reproduced in the figure [the yellow, non-sexist annotation is mine].

The first caption suggests and then dismisses the idea that "If one man takes 10 months to do a job, 10 men can do it in one month" saying "This may be true of picking cotton." (OOPS, is the mention of picking cotton racist? Perhaps he should have used the more familiar "nine women could produce a baby in one month" but that would be sexist again. OY! :^)

He then notes that "even on tasks that can be nicely partitioned among people, the additional communication required adds to the total work, increasing the schedule." That is the well known Law of Diminishing Returns, which does have a mathematical formula. But, as his second graph indicates, more people will still speed the job.

Finally, he says of his last figure (called the "Bathtub" curve) , "Since software construction is complex, the communications overhead is great. Adding more men can lengthen, rather than shorten, the schedule." That seems like verbal flailing of his arms - but, nevertheless IT IS TRUE! And it applies not only to software engineering, but to any complex engineering or business or political or legal or medical task that requires significant interaction between professionals. But, look at Brooks graphs - there are no numbers on the axes! How can a Law be unquantified?

Since my PhD is in Hierarchy Theory, I have considered this a personal challenge and have written a couple of [former] Google Knols about Management Span of Control Advisor and Quantifying Brooks Mythical Man-Month, between them garnering over 6,000 page views! A few months ago I received an email from a very smart Knol reader who was utilizing my work in planning the management structure for a project at his company and he wanted an Excel spreadsheet to help with the task. I sent him an old spreadsheet I had used to make some graphs for my Knol and he used it (giving me credit in the PowerPoint charts he asked me to review and that he presented to his management).

But, my old spreadsheet -while useful to this one very capable and perceptive person- was not easy to use nor did it apply to multi-level hierarchies. I knew I could do better! That triggered me to create a Management Span of Control Advisor that would put my theory into a form so simple that even a manager could use it (:^).

The happy result is my just-published [Former] Google Knol Management Span of Control Advisor and a comprehensive yet easy to use spreadsheet to go along with it.

The illustration from my new spreadsheet shows how Brooks Law applies mainly to a One Level department (BLUE bathtub curve), but it can be "drained" with a multilevel hierarchy (Two Level structure - PINK curve and a Three Level structure - GREEN curve).

Please feel free to have a look at my new Knol and download and try out the companion Excel spreadsheet. As always, comments are appreciated!

Ira Glickstein

PS: My students at the University of Maryland University College will be using this new Knol and spreadsheet in the online grad course in System Engineering I teach there and which starts in a couple weeks. Most of them are professionals in the Information Technology (IT) industry (or related military work) and many are going for their Masters Degree to help them become better IT managers or move from technical work to IT management.

Three Times the Size of Manhattan and It FLOATS!

What is over three times the area of Manhattan and floats? It is the tip of the tongue of the Petermann Glacier in Greenland which has just calved off and is moving at anything but a glacial pace into the Arctic Ocean.

About a month ago my family and I were privileged to watch the Margerie Glacier in Canada's Glacier Bay calve [click on photo for larger view]. Our cruise ship patrolled about a quarter mile away from Margerie for over an hour and we got to see the birth of a handful of chunks. It was impressive to see pieces the size of large buildings come crashing down into the water and float away as tiny icebergs. First we'd see the iceberg-to-be start to fall and then, a second or two later, we heard the snap, crackle, and pop! The crew of the Holland-America Ryndam served cups of thick, hot split pea soup on deck to celebrate our visit.

The image shows the tongue of the Petermann Glacier prior to separation (31 July). The animation shows separation (4 August) and later after it had moved a few miles away (7 August). [Click CLICK HERE TO SEE HI-RES ANIMATION]

The images were generated using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) an advanced, computer-intensive technology with which I am familiar due to my work on military avionics. It is sometimes called Side-Looking Radar. An aircraft (or satellite) flies in a straight line, and emits radar pulses to the side. The return signals are recorded in memory storage and processed to generate an image with high precision equivalent to a "lens" the length of the flight segment. (As we all know, in optics, the larger the lens the sharper the images, and the equivalent applies to synthetic-aperture radars as well.)

The Petermann Glacier grows about 1 KM (5/8 mile) every year. The piece that just broke off is about 30 KM (19 miles) long and thus represents about 30 years of growth.

Normally, much smaller pieces break off on a regular basis - as we witnessed at Margerie - but every several years a big one lets loose, the last one in 1991. Close examination shows a crack developing that may open up in perhaps ten years, giving birth to what could be up to an 8 KM (5 mile) long iceberg.

For comparison, the most recent Petermann iceberg is about 30 x 14 KM (~19 x 8 miles) while Manhattan Island in New York City is about 20 x 4 KM (~12 x 2 miles).

Read more about this event and see some wonderful images at Watts Up With That and the European Space Agency.

Of course, this giant glacier calving has been interpreted as further proof of the dangers of Global Warming. As regular readers of this Blog know, I am a lukewarmer-skeptic on human-caused warming. I accept that we have been in a warming period for the past 150 years or more (since the Little Ice Age) and that human activity is responsible for perhaps 10% of that warming, while the remainder is due to natural cycles. (see Atmospheric Science Made Simple, and Is the IPCC Process Scientific? and Explaining Away Climategate - 1 and Explaining Away Climategate - 2.)

Ira Glickstein

Self Defense?

[From Joel] In previous times article IV section 4 of the Constitution has been considered to be without consequence either being obvious or unenforceable. It reads:

Section 4.
The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republican Form of Government, and shall protect each of them against Invasion; and on Application of the Legislature, or of the Executive (when the Legislature cannot be convened) against domestic Violence.

It would seem that illegal immigration in great numbers is a form of foreign invasion and that the federal government has an obligation which it is not meeting. The philosophical question is whether or not the failure to fulfill an obligation forecloses a protected party from defending itself. Does the existence of the police prevent an individual from acting to defend one's property?

Racism - Real and Imagined - Sherrod Timeline

The incomplete and misleading Media Matters timeline for USDA official Shirley Sherrod's recent travail starts on Monday, 19 July, the day she was forced to resign by Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack.

Here is my timeline that starts three days prior. It is based on Sherrod's own accounting in an interview with MSNBC [click for video].

THURSDAY, 15 July 2010:

Shirley Sherrod says she was first alerted the previous Thursday, 15 July, when someone sent her a nasty email about the deceptively edited Internet video of her talk to a March 2010 NAACP event. She says she replied with her side of the story and then forwarded it all to the USDA that very day. Thus, three days before she was forced to resign, the USDA knew her NAACP talk was about a redemptive event in her life where she overcame race-based emotions and helped a white farmer and his wife save their land.

MONDAY, 19 July 2010:

Again according to Sherrod herself, around 2:30PM on Monday, while at an official USDA meeting, she received a call and was told she was being put on administrative leave. During her drive home from the meeting, she received multiple calls from the USDA, culminating in one where she was told the White House wanted her out immediately and demanding that she pull over and send her resignation using her Blackberry, which she did. It is clear their urgency was prompted by a rumor the incendiary video would appear on FoxNews that evening.

Thus, although the USDA had Sherrod's explanation and three days to view the entire video, they forced her to resign prior to the deceptively edited video appearing on FoxNews. The O'Reilly Factor, apparently recorded earlier that evening, was the first FoxNews show to play a 30-second clip, with a subtitle noting she had already resigned.

TUESDAY, 20 July 2010

Ag Secretary Vilsack stood by his decision to terminate Sherrod even after the full context of her NAACP talk was known. His statement said:

"Yesterday, I asked for and accepted Ms. Sherrod's resignation for two reasons. First, for the past 18 months, we have been working to turn the page on the sordid civil rights record at USDA and this controversy could make it more difficult to move forward on correcting injustices. Second, state rural development directors make many decisions and are often called to use their discretion. ... The controversy surrounding her comments would create situations where her decisions, rightly or wrongly, would be called into question making it difficult for her to bring jobs to Georgia."

The NAACP, in lockstep with the Administration, initially condemned Sherrod's remarks as "shameful" and stated they were "appalled by her actions". Later that day they said they would review the whole tape, which was in their possession. After doing so, they concluded they had been "snookered" by FoxNews.

WEDNESDAY, 21 July 2010

Hasty backtracking by all! Vilsack, having reviewed the full video, apologized for forcing Sherrod to resign. He announced he had offered her a new position at the USDA. O'Reilly apologized, saying he had not done his homework, should have read the whole transcript before jumping to unjustified conclusions, and should not have called for her to be ousted. The White House press secretary, on behalf of the Administration, joined the chorus. (President Obama called Sherrod the following day to add his apology.)

BOTTOM LINE

We all hoped the election of our first Black President would lead us further down the I have a Dream road where, in the words of Martin Luther King:

"I have a dream that one day on the red hills of Georgia the sons of former slaves and the sons of former slaveowners will be able to sit down together at a table of brotherhood. ... I have a dream that my four children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character."

We have a ways to go but we have made a tremendous amount of progress. As a child I was apalled when "coloreds" were ordered to sit in the back of the Greyhound bus when we crossed into Maryland on our trip to Washington DC from New York.

Thank goodness government-imposed segregation is a thing of the past. Thank goodness the highest USDA official in Georgia was able to sit down "at a table of brotherhood" [and sisterhood] "on the red hills of Georgia [with] the sons of former slaves and the sons of former slaveowners". It was going so well until false accusations of racism by an Internet blogger, and a hair-trigger response by an overly-anxious Administration, forced her out.

IRRESPONSIBLE CHARGES OF RACISM AND THE TEA PARTY MOVEMENT

The "bomb-throwing" rightwing blogger who posted the deceptively edited video of Sherrod excused his actions on the basis that the NAACP and other leftist groups have leveled similar untrue charges of racism at the Tea Party and the Republican Party and FoxNews and others on the right. Yes, extremists on both sides continue to make false charges of racism.

I am not a member of the Tea Party nor have I attended any of their events, but I generally support their views. They are a loosely associated group of local grassroots organizations. A few idiots (mostly provocateurs sent by Lyndon LaRouche as far as I can tell) attend Tea Party rallies with disgusting racist signs and the entire Tea Party is falsely labeled as racist.

I was pleased when the National Tea Party Federation, a coalition of local and regional Tea Party groups, soundly rejected a racist satire posted by a prominent person in the Tea Party Express group. The Federation demanded that the racial satirist be expelled by the Express group. When the Express group failed to do so, they were expelled from the Federation.

In keeping with the key tenets of the Tea Party movement of Constitutionally Limited Government and Free Markets, local and regional groups value their independence and reject any hint of a tightly controlled national body. That makes it more difficult to police their ranks. However, when the Northern Iowa Tea Party recently put up a disgusting billboard grouping President Obama with Hitler and Lenin, there was a clear outcry and the sign was taken down the next day!

The radical left seems to have adopted the tactic of falsely labeling the right in general, and the Tea Party in particular, as racists and worse. The media overplay the few nutcases with disgusting signs and generally ignore the overwhelming majority who are orderly and civil and even pick up the garbage when their rallies are over!

I am encouraged that the National Tea Party Federation (NTPF) has established strong membership rules, including:

• Our organization rejects Birthers.
• Our organization rejects 9/11 Truthers.
• Our organization rejects racial discrimination.
• Our organization rejects hate speech.
• Our organization rejects acts of violence or subversive behavior.

Ira Glickstein

Let them Build the 9/11 Mosque at Ground Zero

ARGUMENTS AGAINST THE PROPOSITION

No doubt the group funding the proposed "Cordoba House" mosque and Islamic cultural center two blocks from the sacred 9/11 Ground Zero site are being intentionally provocative and disingenuous regarding their main motivation.

There are a thousand more suitable sites in Manhattan that would be just as convenient for promotion of Islamic worship and culture.

Currently, we don't know if the funding comes from a foreign source and what the real interests and policies are behind this poke in the eye for New Yorkers in general and victims of 9/11 and their families and friends in particular.

Yes, all the 9/11 hijackers were Muslims. Yes, they used Islamic religious principles to justify their actions. Yes, some Muslims in the US and many worldwide cheered as the World Trade Center Towers came tumbling down, killing some 3000 innocent civilians at the New York site, along with many others at the Pentagon and in the other 9/11 aircraft.

Yes, our righteous indignation over this terrorist attack on the US mainland justified our military response, resulting in the deaths of additional thousands of our best and bravest young men and women as well as those of our allies. Yes, nearly all terrorists worldwide are Muslims who use their religion to justify their actions. They martyr themselves in the belief they will ascend immediately to paradise for all sorts of rewards their religion denies them here on Earth.

I have received many e-mails from relatives and friends with links to websites that are in opposition to the buillding of this 9/11 mosque. Most, while understandably passionate, are well-reasoned in their arguments. Unfortunately, some cross the line into outright religious bigotry, even trivializing the Holocaust by violating Godwin's Law. (I favor Dennis Miller's version: Don't call someone a Nazi unless they have croaked at least a million people.)

ARGUMENTS FOR THE PROPOSITION

Some of the 9/11 victims were innocent Muslims at work in the World Trade Towers. Nearly all American Muslims were and are as enraged as you and me about the attack.

I personally hope the backers of the new mosque and Islamic cultural center find a more appropriate location. But, I do not support those who would twist the "historic building" laws to prevent the former Burlington Coat Factory from being torn down. Official permitting and other government oversight must be neutral to religion unless it can be shown that the new facility will be involved in recruiting additional terrorists. Freedom of religion is part of what makes the US the greatest country in the world and makes me proud to be a citizen.

Let us not battle darkness with more darkness, but rather with light!

Here is a good CNN video on the topic.

Here is what New York's Mayor, Michael Bloomberg, said in a recent radio address:

“If somebody wants to build a religious house of worship, they should do it and we shouldn’t be in the business of picking which religions can and which religions can’t. I think it’s fair to say if somebody was going to try to on that piece of property build a church or a synagogue, nobody would be yelling and screaming. And the fact of the matter is that Muslims have a right to do it too. What is great about America and particularly New York is we welcome everybody and I just- you know, if we are so afraid of something like this, what does it say about us? Democracy is stronger than this. You know, the ability to practice your religion is the- was one of the real reasons America was founded. And for us to say no is just, I think, not appropriate is a nice way to phrase it.”

Here is a link to the site run by backers of Cordoba House, where they say, in part:

"Why the Cordoba House?

"Cordoba House is a Muslim-led project which will build a world-class facility that promotes tolerance, reflecting the rich diversity of New York City. The center will be community-driven, serving as a platform for inter-community gatherings and cooperation at all levels, providing a space for all New Yorkers to enjoy.

"This proposed project is about promoting integration, tolerance of difference and community cohesion through arts and culture. Cordoba House will provide a place where individuals, regardless of their backgrounds, will find a center of learning, art and culture; and most importantly, a center guided by universal values in their truest form - compassion, generosity, and respect for all.

"The site will contain tremendous amounts of resources that otherwise would not exist in Lower Manhattan; a 500-seat auditorium, swimming pool, art exhibition spaces, bookstores, restaurants - all these services would form a cultural nexus for a region of New York City that, as it continues to grow, requires the sort of hub that Cordoba House will provide."

Yes, of course I know in many Islamic countries it is currently illegal to build a church or synagogue in certain locations, and, if you do build one it must not be higher that any nearby mosque, and must not display a cross or a star of David, etc. Not too long ago (and perhaps even today) there were similar restrictions on the design and permission for building synagogues in parts of Christian Europe. All the more reason to demonstrate American Exceptionalism! If the backers of Cordoba House insist on their right to build what they want where they want, LET THEM DO IT so long as the design and construction meets the same standards applied to any other similar building in New York City.

Ira Glickstein

BP Dummies and Federal Officials Acting Like Bungling Fools

[From Billlifka, posted by Ira with his permission. Image added by Ira.] Federal officials continue to act like bungling fools so much they overshadow the BP dummies. The good news about the bad guys at BP is that many will lose their jobs and their company will lose much money on spilled oil and cleanup. Let’s hope it doesn’t take so much money that the company declares bankruptcy. If that were to happen, the company could not be forced to pay claimants what they deserve. Congress and President Obama might want to keep that in mind.

It’s useful to remember how badly BP screwed up. They used the “long string” design, one of two drilling options. That option is cheaper and faster but is inherently riskier because it allows a dangerous pathway for gas to rise outside the pipe. The alternative has more places that prevent gas flowing uncontrolled. BP maintains there is nothing inherently unsafe in long string design. However, most oil exploration companies avoid using the technique except in wells that have been proven to be low pressure. The Deepwater Horizon well was exploratory and (obviously) high pressure. BP used long string design on 35% of its Gulf wells since 2003; Chevron has 15%; Shell has 8%; BHP Billiton has 4%. BP has been fined for safety violations hundreds of times more than its competitors in the Gulf, another sign of poor operating practices. As bad as that may be, BP’s continuing operations were approved by the federal government.

It’s clear that the overwhelming majority of drilling operations in the Gulf are safe and those that require rechecking are of the long string variety and especially if they’re BP’s. Obama’s action was to close down all of them for some undefined period subject to some undefined re-approval process. This exacerbates economic impact on Gulf States at a particularly bad time for America. At this writing, a federal judge has ruled against the legality of Obama’s moratorium. The Justice Department is scrambling to appeal the ruling and rephrase moratorium language that might pass legal scrutiny. Sea bottom for the Deepwater Horizon well was 5000+ feet. The moratorium was for all drilling over 500 feet.

BP and other oil drillers have been bashed for having near identical and inadequate cleanup plans in event of spillage. It has been revealed, reluctantly, that all companies were required to submit a plan that addressed, precisely, the federal model for oil leakage. It has turned out that the model is grossly in error. Each of the oil companies’ cleanup plan was approved by the feds. When all is considered, it’s hard to blame the oil companies for more than 50% of this deficiency. This is not to give the oil companies a free pass, but to criticize the popular view that federal regulatory action is the solution to problems. The most regulated industries in America are the banking and petroleum industries. We’ve had the banking failure and now this. We need more regulation?

As a typical political response, Obama has appointed a committee to investigate the disaster and recommend action. All members are academics without appropriate technical knowledge.

Information keeps leaking, along with the crude oil. At least thirteen countries offered the use of their specialized cleanup capabilities immediately after the explosion. The feds refused. A 1920 bill called the Jones Act prohibits the use of foreign vessels and crews laboring in U.S. waters. It was designed to please American Unions. Although Bush II exempted Katrina cleanup efforts from this outdated legislation, Obama’s people chose to favor the unions over the environment.

[From Billlifka, posted by Ira with his permission. Image added by Ira.]

Plenty of ZIP as We Mature

Blog readers who know us personally are surprised to see Vi on a zipline [click image at left for larger version]. But here is my non-athletic wife of 46 years doing just fine as she zips between trees, flying some fifty feet above the ground.

The photo is of one of the shorter of the seven zips we did in Ketchican, last week. Vi is arriving at a tree platform as our guide Katie reaches out to grab her. The second photo is of me starting a zip. You can see how far I have to go to the next tree platform.

Our zipline adventure has been the highlight of our Alaska family vacation. Two of our granddaughters and our son-in-law (their dad) accompanied us. We all had a fine time.




All of you have seen people on ziplines, but how many have actually done it?

I was amazed when Vi informed me she had signed up to join our grands on this zipline adventure. I was kind of challenged into signing up as well. Prior to and during the cruise from Vancouver Canada to Alaska, Vi continually brought up the zipline. Quite frankly, I was somewhat worried even though I am the more physically adventurous of the two of us.

As we sailed into Ketchican and debarked for the bus that would take us to Alaska Canopy Adventures [click to see more photos and info], I was very worried. First, that I would chicken out and second that Vi would have some sort of trouble.

There were seven in our group, our family plus a wonderful couple, Craig and Ann, who provided us with some great photos including the one of Vi above. We were fitted with gloves, helmets and harnesses, which turned out to be quite comfortable.

The harness fastened around the waist with loops for the legs and shoulders. The main support came up the front and connected to two pulleys, one on the bottom cable and one on the top cable. There are also two safety straps that are fastened to the cable at the tree platform or that hook to the pulley mechanism during the zip. At least one safety strap is fastened at all times.

During the zip your left hand holds the top of the pulley assembly and your right hand holds the main support (as if you were holding a microphone). We were instructed to sit with our legs raised for best aerodynamics. As we approached the target tree platform, our guide Katie would signal for us to place our right hand behind our head and gently rest it on the cable, squeezing it just enough to slow us for a nice landing. This is fine only in theory.

Both Vi and I had some bad landings and Katie really earned her pay.

The problem I had was on the first long zip, after a good ride on the short intro zip. My legs rotated to the right and I found myself going sideways. That could have affected the aerodynamics and resulted in a landing short of the target. I tried to rotate my left hand to correct the rotation, but my attempt backfired and I found myself riding backwards! (Quick, hold your left hand above your head and imagine it is on the top of the pulley assembly and your legs are rotating to the right. Which way should you rotate your hand? Well, in the excitement, I rotated it the wrong way.)

Well, here I was going full speed, but backwards, and I was unable to see the signal to put my right hand on the cable to slow down. Also, I was unsure where to safely place my hand without risking having my fingers dragged into the pulley. So I came into the target tree platform too fast and slammed into Katie who, in turn, slammed into the padding on the tree trunk. Fortunately, she has had experience with this type of landing and knew what to do to prevent any injury to either of us.

Vi had the opposite problem. When she saw Katie signal to slow down, she over-reacted and landed short of the platform. All I could see in the distance through the tree branches were her legs running in space as Katie pulled her up to the platform.

After these misadventures, both Vi and I were instructed to place our right hand over the top of our left hand on the pulley assembly (rather than in the normal "microphone" position). That helped keep our legs straight ahead during the remaining zips.

In addition to the seven zips, we also walked over a bouncy, shaky suspension bridge, repelled down 30 feet, and went down a 250 foot slide.

Here we were in a totally unfamiliar situation, flying between trees high above the ground, suspended by a pulley contraption. During the adventure, our guides were very professional and reassuring and, strangely as I think about it now, neither of us felt any fear. Yet, having done it, and enjoying having done it, I do not think I will ever do it again.

Ira Glickstein